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Characteristics of the current state of the socio-economic development of the Russian Federation in terms of the foreign economic sphere, main indicators and analysis of social, financial and economic risks

Preliminary results of socio-economic developmentRussian Federation for 2019

Global economic growth in 2019, according to preliminary estimates, slowed down significantly (to 2.9% after 3.6% in 2018) and fell below 3.0% for the first time since 2009.

The aggravation of trade contradictions between the largest economies has led to a decrease in the growth rate of world trade to the levels observed in 2015-2016. In addition, heightened uncertainty about the international "rules of the game" had a negative impact on investment activity and demand for consumer durables.

As global growth forecasts deteriorated, central banks in many countries cut rates, which led to an easing in global financial conditions. At the same time, for many emerging markets, the positive effect of the resumption of capital inflows was offset by weakening external demand.

Amid slowing global growth, the average annual price of Urals oil in 2019 fell to USD 63.8 per barrel from USD 70.0 per barrel in 2018.

At the same time, on the supply side, oil prices were supported by OPEC+ agreements to limit production, as well as a decrease in oil supplies from Iran and Venezuela.

The average annual exchange rate of the ruble was 64.7 rubles per US dollar (after 62.5 in 2018).

At the same time, during the year there was a trend towards the strengthening of the Russian currency: by December 2019, the ruble appreciated by 7.5% compared to the corresponding month of the previous year and became one of the leaders among the currencies of emerging markets.

The growth of foreign investment in the Russian economy (both investments by non-residents in OFZs and foreign direct investment in the non-financial sector) supported the balance of the financial account, which at the end of 2019 went into a small plus - USD 1.8 billion (after the outflow $76.5 billion in 2018).

Expected results of socio-economic developmentRussian Federation

in 2020, including the foreign economic sphere

After a significant slowdown in global economic growth in 2019 (to 2.9% from 3.6% a year earlier), global growth is expected to stabilize at the achieved levels this year.

Growth will be supported by the agreement between the US and China on the "first part" of the trade deal, the implementation of measures to stimulate economic activity in China and the continuation of the loose direction of the monetary policy of the world's leading central banks. At the same time, the accumulated structural problems in both developed and emerging economies, as well as the exhaustion of the stimulus effect of the US tax reform, will hinder the recovery of global economic growth rates.

Under these conditions, the Urals oil price is expected to decline to USD 57.7 per barrel on average in 2020 after USD 63.8 per barrel in 2019. At the same time, the expected average annual price for Urals crude oil this year is slightly increased compared to the September forecast (USD 57.0 per barrel) due to higher indicators in the first quarter, due to increased tension in the Middle East at the beginning of the year, as well as the decision of OPEC + on an additional reduction in production in January-March.

In Q4 2019, the ruble strengthened against the US dollar (by 3.9% Q4 in nominal terms) against the backdrop of continued inflow of non-resident funds to the OFZ market and lower risk premiums. At the beginning of 2020, this trend continued: on average, the monthly exchange rate of the Russian currency was 61.7 rubles per US dollar compared to 62.9 rubles per US dollar in December last year. While a gradual weakening of the ruble is expected by the end of 2020, taking into account the dynamics of the beginning of the year, the forecast for the average annual exchange rate of the ruble against the US dollar has been adjusted to 63.9 compared to 65.7 rubles per US dollar, provided for in the September forecast.

In 2020, GDP growth is projected to accelerate to 1.9% after 1.4%1 in 2019. The expected GDP growth rate for 2020 was increased compared to the base case of the September forecast (1.7%), taking into account the assessment of the effect of the measures contained in the Message of the President of the Russian Federation to the Federal Assembly of the Russian Federation on January 15, 2020.

Export growth is also expected to pick up in 2020 (primarily non-commodity non-energy commodities) as exporters adapt to the slowdown in global economic growth.

An updated forecast of socio-economic development forplanned

period 2021 and 2022 (with a view to 2024)

The forecast of socio-economic development for the period up to 2024 includes the premise that the growth rate of the world economy will remain at historically low levels (2.8-2.9%). Against the backdrop of weak global growth, oil prices are expected to decline further (from $57.7/bbl in 2020 to $53.0/bbl in 2024), as well as other Russian commodity exports.

At the same time, the implementation of the budget policy in accordance with the “budget rules” will make it possible to limit the impact of trends in foreign markets on domestic economic parameters.

Under these conditions, the dynamics of the ruble exchange rate against foreign currencies in nominal terms will be determined primarily by the inflationary differential between Russia and the trading partner countries. At the same time, the weakening of the ruble against the US dollar will be even more moderate (from levels of about 66 rubles per US dollar in 2021 to 67-68 in 2024) due to the expected weakening of the US dollar over the forecast horizon.

The baseline scenario includes the successful implementation of structural economic policy measures aimed at achieving national development goals and other priorities established by Decree of the President of the Russian Federation dated May 7, 2018 No. 204 “On National Goals and Strategic Objectives for the Development of the Russian Federation for the period up to 2024” . These measures, implemented both within the framework of the management mechanism of national projects and outside it, will ensure the transition to a growth model based, on the one hand, on the outstripping growth of investments in fixed assets, on the other hand, on a sustainable expansion of consumption based on the growth of household incomes. .

In 2021-2022, GDP growth is expected to accelerate to a level of 3.1-3.2 percent.

In 2023-2024, the growth rate will reach 3.3% annually. The high growth rates of the economy will be driven by an increase in investment activity, an increase in the competitiveness of the Russian economy, and the realization of the foreign economic potential. The acceleration of economic growth will allow Russia to overtake Germany in terms of GDP at PPP and, starting from 2022, to reach the 5th place in the list of the largest economies in the world.

Export growth in the forecast period will be mainly supported by increased growth rates of non-oil and gas exports, thanks to the active development of non-primary manufacturing industries. As a result, the real export growth rate in 2021-2022 is projected at 3.7-3.9%, with a further acceleration to 5.0-5.7% in 2023-2024.

The key risk of the current forecast is the possibility of a deterioration in the situation in the global economy, including in the short term due to the worsening epidemiological situation and the associated slowdown in the growth of the Chinese economy and the negative reaction of financial markets.

Preliminary results of foreign trade activities in 2019

According to the results of January-November 2019 foreign trade turnover amounted to 604.5 billion US dollars, having decreased by 3.3% compared to January-November 2018. Export of goods decreased by 6.0% to 383.5 billion US dollars, imports increased by 1.7% to 220.9 billion US dollars.

In the geographic structure of Russia's foreign trade, the European Union occupies a special place (41.8% of Russian trade or $252.6 billion in January-November 2019). Trade turnover with the EU decreased by 6.0%, including imports - by 1.7%, exports - by 7.8%.

Structure of foreign trade turnover by groups of countries in January-November 2019

(January-November 2018)

(according to customs statistics, in percent)

The second group in terms of foreign trade turnover in January-November 2019 are the countries of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (31.9% of Russian foreign trade or 193.1 billion US dollars). Trade turnover with APEC countries decreased by 0.7%, including exports decreased by 4.5%, imports increased by 3.8%.

Trade turnover with the CIS countries decreased by 1.3% to 73.2 billion US dollars. Trade with the EAEU countries increased by 0.7% to $52.2 billion.

The balance of Russia's foreign trade with all countries decreased by 15.0% to 162.6 billion US dollars.

The foreign trade imbalance ratio (balance to turnover ratio) in January-November 2019 decreased to 26.9% compared to 30.6% in January-November 2018.

According to the results of January-November 2019, a positive balance was observed in Russia's trade with most of the most important groups of countries. At the level of individual states, Russia had a significant negative balance in trade with Vietnam (-2.4 billion US dollars) due to a strong reduction in Russian supplies of rolled steel (-73%), other electrical machinery and equipment (-98%), wheat (-77%). Also, a significant negative balance was observed in trade with France (-1.7 billion US dollars), Ireland (-1.1 billion US dollars), Thailand (-1.0 billion US dollars).

Export of goods in January-November 2019 amounted to 383.5 billion US dollars and decreased by 6.0% compared to January-November 2018 as a result of a decrease in the supply of energy products (due to a decrease in export prices), wheat and black products metallurgy.

Raw material export in January-November 2019 decreased by 6.7% compared to January-November 2018 to USD 182.1 billion, due to a decrease in the value of exports of crude oil and natural gas as a result of a decrease in contract prices (in physical terms there has been an increase in supply).

Non-commodity exports in January-November 2019 amounted to 201.4 billion US dollars, having decreased by 5.4% compared to January-November 2018. The decline was primarily due to a decrease in the value of supplies of petroleum products.

Non-commodity non-energy exports in January-November 2019 compared to January-November 2018 decreased by 0.5% to USD 133.4 billion. The largest declines were recorded in steel semi-finished products, hot-rolled flat steel products, and the largest increases in unwrought and semi-finished gold and platinum, copper products and aluminum storage tanks.

At the level of the most important groups of countries, according to the results of January-November 2019, Russian exports were characterized by negative dynamics. Exports to the countries of the European Union decreased by 7.8% to 172.6 billion US dollars. Most a significant decline was observed in deliveries to Belgium (by 26.7%) - as a result of a decrease in exports of petroleum products and ferrous metals, Poland (by 25.5%) - petroleum products (by 29.8%) and ferrous metals (by 16.0% ), Germany (by 19.4%) - due to a reduction in the supply of petroleum products (by 21.4%) and copper (by 29.0%), Italy (by 10.8%) - as a result of a decrease in exports of petroleum products (by 13 .2%) and ferrous metals (by 18.0%). At the same time, deliveries to the UK increased significantly (+27.1%) as a result of an increase in gold exports (by 942.9%).

Exports to APEC countries decreased in January-November 2019 compared to January-November 2018 by 4.5% to $101.1 billion, including to Vietnam (-52.0%) as a result of a decrease supplies of wheat and ferrous metals, to Taiwan (-28.6%) - due to the reduction of oil products and ferrous metals. At the same time, deliveries to Canada increased (+61.0%) due to an increase in exports of crude oil and coal.

The decrease in Russian exports to the CIS countries in January-November 2019 amounted to -3.0% (to 48.6 billion US dollars), including to Ukraine - by 28.1% - due to a decrease in the supply of petroleum products and fertilizers , to Belarus - by 7.6 percent. The decrease in Russian exports in January-November 2019 to Belarus is due to a decrease in supplies (in value terms) of petroleum products, crude oil, ferrous scrap.

The commodity structure of exports continues to be dominated by fuel and energy products, their share in January-November 2019 decreased compared to January-November 2018 by 1.8 percentage points to 62.6%. The value of exports of fuel and energy products decreased by 8.6% to $240.2 billion. Export of liquefied natural gas increased by 53.7% to $7.6 billion. Exports of crude oil decreased by 5.8% to 111.6 billion US dollars, oil products - by 15.9% to 60.7 billion US dollars, natural gas in a gaseous state - by 15.4% to 37, 7 billion US dollars.

The basis of Russian exports, in addition to fuel and energy products, are metals and products from them, chemical products and rubber, these three groups in January-November 2019 accounted for a total of 78.0% of the value of Russian exports.

The value of Russian imports in January-November 2019, it showed slightly positive dynamics and amounted to USD 220.9 billion, which is 1.7% higher than in January-November 2018. The increase is due to the growth in imports of cars and auto components, medicines, and dairy products. According to the results of January-November 2019, compared with January-November 2018, Russia's imports from the EU countries decreased by 1.7%. Russia's import from the APEC countries increased by 3.8%, from the CIS countries - by 2.2%.

Machinery, equipment and vehicles remain the main item of Russian imports, the purchases of which in January-November 2019 compared to January-November 2018 decreased by 1.2% to 101.4 billion US dollars, the share of this commodity group in the structure of domestic imports amounted to 45.9 percent. Including imports of other aircraft (helicopters and airplanes) decreased by 19.2%, industrial and laboratory equipment - by 19.7%, telephone sets - by 7.4%. At the same time, imports of fittings for pipelines and boilers showed significant growth - by 15.3%, bodies of motor vehicles - by 15.1%, cars - by 9.6%.

The basis of Russian imports, in addition to machinery, equipment and vehicles, are chemical products and rubber, food products and agricultural raw materials, the share of these three commodity groups in January-November 2019 in the structure of Russian purchases amounted to 77.8 percent.

In value terms, imports of food products in January-November 2019 remained unchanged, chemical products - increased by 10.0% y/y. Imports of medicines (31.1%), sera and vaccines (65.0%), butter (46.5%), cheeses and cottage cheese (16.3%), ethyl alcohol ( 15.9%. The largest decline was observed in purchases of soybeans (-16.9%), apples and pears (-20.2%), fresh cattle meat (-34.8) and aldehyde resins (-19.7%).

Non-CIS countries are Russia's main trading partners. According to the results of January-November 2019, their share in the trade turnover amounted to 87.9%, in exports - 87.3%, in imports - 88.9 percent.

Russia's foreign trade turnover with non-CIS countries in January-November 2019 amounted to 531.2 billion US dollars and decreased by 3.6 percent compared to January-November 2018. Exports decreased by 6.5% to 334.9 billion US dollars, imports increased by 1.7% to 196.3 billion US dollars.

The leading positions among the EU member states are occupied by Germany, the Netherlands and Italy, which account for 46.1% of foreign trade turnover with this group of countries.

The most important foreign trade partners among the APEC countries are China, the United States, the Republic of Korea and Japan, which accounted for 85.6% of foreign trade turnover with this group of countries in January-November 2019.

According to the results of January-November 2019, China is Russia's largest foreign trade partner (16.5% of Russia's trade turnover or $99.6 billion).

The share of Russia's other largest partners in January-November 2019 was 8.0% for Germany, 7.5% for the Netherlands, 5.0% for the Republic of Belarus, 4.0% for the USA, 3.9% for Turkey, 3. 8% for Italy.

Foreign trade turnover of Russia with CIS countries in January-November 2019, it decreased by 1.3% to USD 73.2 billion. Russia's exports to the CIS countries decreased by 3.0% to $48.6 billion, while Russian imports from the CIS countries increased by 2.2% to $24.6 billion. With all CIS countries in January-November 2019, there was a trade surplus.

What does Hjccbz export? This question was asked by every inhabitant of our country. Today, Russia is mainly engaged in the export of energy resources such as oil products, coal and gas. Rolled steel is also exported along with ferrous and non-ferrous metals and minerals. Oil products form the largest share of Russian exports. In addition, the leading export items include natural gas, mineral fertilizers, timber, machinery, as well as weapons and various equipment.

Many are interested in what is the role of Yakut diamonds in the export of polished diamonds. More than three hundred million tons of oil, as well as about two hundred and fifty billion cubic meters of gas are exported to the countries of near and far abroad. We will tell you more about the exported products, the structure of Russia's exports and trading partners in our article.

Foreign trade of Russia

Russia's main trading partners today are such countries as China, Poland, Germany, Italy, Turkey, Switzerland, Great Britain, Finland and the USA.

Russia is engaged in providing a significant part of the needs of the Commonwealth of Independent States in oil products and gas. What else does Russia export? Timber, machinery and various equipment. Therefore, for most countries, in particular the neighboring countries, Russia has been and remains an important trading partner.

In 2012, Russia became a member of the World Trade Organization. In addition, our country is a member of the CIS free trade zone agreement and a member of the customs, as well as the Eurasian Economic Union.

Since 2014, domestic foreign trade has been under significant negative pressure from the foreign trade policy of other countries, which is expressed in the form of economic sanctions imposed against Russia. Counter-sanctions from the Russian government in the field of foreign trade also have an impact. Thus, due to well-known political changes, the turnover in foreign trade in the country in 2014 decreased by seven percent compared to the previous year in 2013 and amounted to only eight hundred billion dollars.

As for the current stage, according to the data of the Federal Customs Service, the turnover in Russia's foreign trade over the past year amounted to 470 billion dollars. This figure is even lower compared to the values ​​of 2014 and 2015. If we compare the current trade turnover with previous years, the drop is more than eleven percent. One of the important components of foreign trade policy is export from Russia to China.

The decisive role in the negative change in indicators was played by last year's devaluation of the ruble, which occurred after a large-scale drop in oil prices in early 2016. Then oil quotes fell to below $30 per barrel due to excess supply on the foreign market. The reduction in demand for oil from one of Russia's most important partners, China, also had an effect. And the exchange rate of the dollar against the ruble increased sharply against the background of all this.

Export records of recent years

At the end of last year, Russia's exports, in terms of value, decreased by seventeen percent, amounting to $280 billion.

A similar picture is formed due to the fact that Russia exports abroad mainly hydrocarbons (gas and oil exports). Of course, along with the fall in their value, the total price of exports also decreased. Along with this, exports in physical terms increased. Russia during the whole last year did not reduce, but, on the contrary, increased their deliveries abroad, despite low prices.

Thus, oil exports in 2016 increased by almost seven percent to 200 million tons. But at the same time, income from it fell by eighteen percent to seventy billion dollars. The same thing happened in the export of other raw materials. Thus, in physical terms, the export of natural gas increased by thirteen percent, although already in the first half of the year its cost fell to $150 per thousand cubic meters.

Large commodity enterprises were engaged in increasing the volume of deliveries in order to maintain market share. In addition, in the conditions of devaluation, they had the opportunity to receive more revenue from exports in rubles.

The same has served as an incentive for companies in other industries. What does Russia export besides the materials mentioned above? Thus, our country has managed to increase the supply of most food products to China, and in addition, to the countries of Asia and Europe. In terms of wheat supplies last spring, Russia came out on top in the world, thus overtaking Canada and the United States.

In addition, the volume of exports of butter, meat, milk, cottage cheese and cheeses increased. Deliveries of engineering goods, as well as timber and other products, increased. This was influenced by state support for large enterprises, which was aimed at stimulating production and increasing exports. In addition, the devaluation of the ruble made it possible for Russian products to emerge victorious in the competition with other countries. Russian goods were often supplied to the world market at lower prices, but it should be noted that this did not result in large losses for exporters.

So, as has been noted more than once, Russia mainly exports hydrocarbon raw materials, that is, oil, coal and gas, as well as chemical and metallurgical goods, along with machinery, equipment, weapons and food (grain exports, for example).

At the end of 2009, we were in second place in the world in terms of oil exports and were leaders in natural gas supplies. In the same year, seventeen billion kilowatts of electricity worth eight hundred million dollars were exported.

Jewelry

Yakutia occupies a leading position in the Russian Federation in terms of diamond mining. The countries of the European Union, Israel and the United Arab Emirates are considered one of the main importers of Yakut diamonds.

Arms export

Between 1995 and 2001, Russian arms exports amounted to approximately three billion annually. Later, it began to grow and in 2002 exceeded $4.5 billion. In 2006, this figure increased by another two billion dollars.

In 2007, on the basis of a presidential decree, Rosoboronexport became the sole state intermediary in the field of military-technical cooperation. As for arms manufacturers, they have lost the right to export the final products of Russian weapons. The share of our country in the world arms market in 2005-2009 was 23 percent, second only to the United States.

In 2009, Russia had military-technical cooperation with more than 80 countries, supplying products to 62 of them. The volume of domestic exports of military goods then exceeded two hundred and sixty billion rubles. The share of exports of combat aircraft at that time amounted to forty percent of the total exports of the main types of weapons.

What does Russia export today?

Today, Russia has multibillion-dollar arms supply contracts with countries such as India, China, Vietnam, Greece, Iran, Brazil, Syria, Malaysia, Indonesia and others.

Food export

At the beginning of 2010, we were in third place in the world in the export of grain crops, behind only the United States and the European Union. In terms of wheat exports, Russia was in fourth place. These are good indicators for exported agricultural products.

Last year, food exports increased by four percent, reaching an all-time high of $17 billion. Thus, in the structure of exports, the largest part of it falls on wheat, which is 27 percent of the total food supply, which allowed Russia to come out on top. Next comes frozen fish, sunflower oil and corn. By the way, according to the results of last year, the export of agricultural products and foodstuffs from Russia increased by 4%.

Export of machinery and equipment

In 2009, equipment and machinery worth eighteen billion dollars were exported from our country. From 1999 to 2009, the share of total exports of domestic machinery and equipment increased by 2.5 times. In 2010, exports of machinery and equipment increased to $21 billion.

Car export

In 2009, about 42,000 cars and 15,000 trucks worth $630 million were exported from Russia. A significant part of the trucks exported from our country is supplied to the CIS.

Export of metallurgical products

According to 2007 data, Russia ranked third in the world right after Japan and China in terms of exports of steel products, which amounted to 27 billion tons per year. In 2008, we ranked first in the world in nickel and aluminum exports.

Software export

In 2011, total exports of software and development services amounted to $4 billion.

Export: Russia's trading partners

Now in the world media, as well as on the Internet, it is widely discussed that Russia supposedly does not have any serious foreign trade policy, and that domestic trade directly is very, very modest. But is it really so? According to statistics from the Federal Customs Service, last year our total trade turnover amounted to $280 billion. At the same time, the share of exports is 170 billion dollars. In any case, based on statistical data, we can confidently say that we sell much more than we buy.

It must be noted, however, that the trade turnover has decreased by eighteen per cent. And it is difficult to do anything about it, given the unfavorable economic situation along with sanctions and constant foreign policy pressure. Of course, all this seriously harms the joint foreign trade business. At the same time, it should be noted that exports decreased by twenty-five percent. And yet, with whom is Russia trading today?

So, the main trading partners of our country, even despite all kinds of sanctions, are still the countries of the European Union, which amounts to 124 billion dollars a year. The trade turnover with the representatives of the Eurasian Union at the moment is only nine billion, but it must be emphasized here that this is only so far.

Exports to China from Russia are important aspects of foreign trade policy. Trade turnover with this country is almost forty billion dollars. In second place today is Germany - it's twenty-four billion. The third position among the most promising trading partners for us belongs to the Netherlands. Therefore, trading with Russia is more than profitable, and in this regard, quite a few countries have not reduced the volume of trade with us, but rather, on the contrary, increased it. For example, countries such as China, the Netherlands and France have done this.

The table below shows the main partner countries with which Russia has foreign trade relations in terms of exports to date.

What has changed in 2017?

After, one might say, a disastrous 2016, the situation in terms of Russian exports turned to growth again. The main incentives in the first half of the year were the stabilization of raw material prices along with the strengthening of the ruble exchange rate and production growth rates.

In the first half of 2017, foreign trade turnover continued to increase. In six months, they reached $270 billion compared to the same period last year in 2016. Thus, there was an increase of 28 percent.

In addition, positive changes in the field of foreign trade, which began in the second half of last year, continued in 2017. The decisive factor for this was the rise in oil prices, which happened after the agreements between the OPEC countries aimed at reducing the rate of extraction of black gold. As a result of all this, since the autumn of 2016, oil prices began to increase and in February 2017 they managed to reach their maximum level: a barrel of oil exceeded $56. In May of this year, the oil producers extended the agreement for another nine months, that is, until the end of March next year 2018. According to the forecasts of most experts, this agreement will support the cost of oil until the end of this year. At the same time, the reduction volumes remain at the level of 1.8 million barrels per day. According to the cartel member countries, this will make it possible to eliminate excess supply from the market and prevent prices from falling again.

It is important to note that, along with oil prices, other commodities, such as ferrous and non-ferrous metals, as well as commodities and gold, also rose in price. By the way, do not forget about the export of grain to Asian countries. In addition, following the increase in prices, the ruble began to strengthen.

• INTERNATIONAL ORGANIZATIONS AND UNIONS
• FOREIGN ECONOMIC ACTIVITY OF RUSSIA
• IMPORT
• EXPORT

This article discusses the main directions of development of Russia's foreign economic activity, including the participation of our state in major international organizations and unions that regulate the exchange of goods between countries, as well as the structure of Russia's imports and exports.

• Development of accounting for export-import operations in modern economic conditions
• Legal support and accounting of export operations
• Main Aspects of Ensuring Russia's Foreign Economic Security

Taking into account the changes taking place in the world economy, and to simplify entry into the foreign market, Russia is adjusting its foreign trade policy. The growth of foreign trade turnover indicates the building of mutually beneficial relations with foreign partners and the correctness of the chosen course of Russia's foreign policy.

In this article, we will consider the main directions of development of Russia's foreign economic activity, including the participation of our state in the main international organizations and unions that regulate the exchange of goods between countries, the structure of imports and exports.

The most striking manifestation of the economic part of globalization is international trade. Every year, the turnover of foreign sales and purchases of goods of various kinds is only increasing, and international unions and organizations are being created to expand the possibilities for the exchange of products between countries and simplify transactions. The largest and most influential world organizations are the World Trade Organization (WTO; English World Trade Organization (WTO), European Union (European Union, EU), Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) and a relatively young association of only three participating countries - Customs Union.The creation of such organizations greatly simplifies the process of interstate exchange of goods and services.Russia, as a member, is not a member of only one of the global organizations listed above - the EU, but this does not detract from trade turnover with states that are members of the European Union.On the contrary, the lion's share , namely, half of the Russian turnover falls on the EU countries.And every year the total value of exports and imports is only growing.

To simplify the exchange of goods between Russia and Belarus, the Customs Union was created, which also includes Kazakhstan. Between these three states, many agreements have been concluded regarding trade and the exchange of services. The main document regulating relations regarding the movement of goods across the border of the Customs Union is the Customs Code of the Customs Union. This legal document is universal for the member countries of the Customs Union and replaces the national Customs Codes. The document was adopted in 2009 and since then some of its articles have been amended.

Paragraph 2 of Article 1 of the Customs Code provided that customs regulation in the Customs Union was carried out in accordance with the Customs Code of the Customs Union, and in the part not regulated by this code, in accordance with the customs legislation of the participating countries. From the moment this article is amended, the part that is not regulated by the Customs Code of the Customs Union is also regulated by the customs legislation of the state - a member of the Customs Union, but until the establishment of legal relations at the level of the legislation of the Customs Union.

Also in the fourth article, an addition was made to the definition of such a term as "release of goods". In the new wording, this concept has been expanded and looks as follows: the release of goods is an action of the customs authorities that allows interested persons to use goods in accordance with the conditions of the declared customs procedure or in accordance with the conditions established for certain categories of goods that are not subject in accordance with the Customs Code under customs procedures.

Article 16 of the Customs Code of the Customs Union has been amended to allow customs representatives to submit reports now in electronic form. In our opinion, this is an important change, and it will significantly simplify and speed up the procedures for reporting to the customs authorities.

According to the amendments to Federal Law No. 372-FZ of December 21, 2013 “On Amendments to the Federal Law “On Export Control” (the document came into force on June 22, 2014), the President of the Russian Federation will determine the list of foreign states and types of controlled goods, which can be exported from the territory of the Russian Federation without a license, and will also decide on the termination or suspension of this regime.

With the increase and expansion of international trade relations, and not only trade, there is a need to reform, and sometimes the issuance of new regulations governing the foreign economic activity of the state. Russia keeps pace with the changes taking place in the world trade arena and adjusts and adjusts its foreign trade policy to simplify entry into the foreign market. All these actions are already bearing fruit and Russian turnover, both import and export, is only increasing. The growth of foreign trade turnover indicates the building of mutually beneficial relations with foreign partners and the correctness of the chosen course of Russia's foreign policy.

Since January 1, 2015, we have been living in a new reality, the name of which is the Eurasian Economic Union, the agreement on the creation of which Russia, Belarus and Kazakhstan signed in May 2014 in Astana. Armenia signed an agreement on joining the Eurasian Economic Union in October 2014. The Customs Code of the EAEU is being developed. Its project, in the development of which entrepreneurs from all member states of the union are actively involved, has already been sent for domestic approval.

Next, consider the structure of imports and exports of Russia. According to the Federal Customs Service of the Russian Federation, the turnover of Russia's foreign trade for the 1st quarter of 2014 amounted to 189,322 million US dollars. The foreign trade surplus amounted to 56 billion US dollars. The main trading partners of the Russian Federation were the countries of the European Union (EU), which provided 49.7% of the trade turnover, the second most important trading partners were the countries of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation, which provided Russia with 25.6% of its trade turnover, the share of the CIS, the third the importance of the trading partner of the Russian Federation, amounted to 12.7%.

Table 1 Main trade partners of Russia, mln USD

If we consider countries outside the economic blocs, then the main trading partner of Russia is the People's Republic of China, the trade turnover with which increased by 2.2% and in absolute terms amounted to 21,654 million US dollars (11.4% trade share), while exports of Russian goods to China grew by 7.9%, but the trade balance with China remains negative - $2.8 billion. The second foreign trade partner of the Russian Federation is the Netherlands, with a turnover of 17,952 million US dollars (share of 9.5%), the third is Germany, with a turnover of 17 billion US dollars (share of 9%).

Table 2 Foreign trade of Russia by countries*, mln USD

* Only those countries with a quarterly turnover of over $1 billion are shown.

It is noteworthy that despite the sanctions from the United States of America, trade turnover with this country increased by 13.5%, while exports grew by 26.6%, and imports by 6.2%.

Table 3 Dynamics of Russia's foreign trade turnover, million US dollars

The share of non-CIS countries in the structure of trade turnover of the Russian Federation in the first quarter of 2014 amounted to 87.3%, the share of the CIS - 12.7%.

For the 1st quarter of 2014, Russia exported goods worth 122,690,273 thousand US dollars. Russia's main export commodities are energy resources [oil, gas, coal, etc.], which account for 72% of its export structure.

Table 4 Russian export structure, thousand US dollars

For the 1st quarter of 2014, Russia imported goods worth 66,632,659 thousand US dollars. The main goods imported (imported) into Russia are engineering products - cars, machines, machinery and vehicles, which occupy 47% in the import structure. The second significant group of goods imported into the Russian Federation is the products of the chemical industry, which occupies 15% in the share of imports, the third significant group of goods is food, which also occupies 15%.

Table 5 Structure of Russian imports, thousand US dollars

The Russian economy, the structure of its exports and sales markets, of course, need to be diversified. The surplus of foreign trade, the inflow of foreign currency is provided exclusively through the sale of hydrocarbons. In the near future, developed and emerging markets, primarily the economies of China, the USA, Japan, Brazil, etc., will certainly show an increase in demand for energy resources, but the economy of the Russian Federation has many competitive industries that have completely unrealized potential until today . It is in realizing the potential of unrealized industries that the diversification and future strength of the Russian economy lies.

Taking into account the latest trends in the development of the world economy in the context of the geopolitical crisis, the Government of the Russian Federation approved priority anti-crisis response measures in 2015. The key areas of action of the Government of the Russian Federation related to Russia's foreign economic activity in the coming months will include: support for import substitution and export of a wide range of non-commodity, including high-tech goods; promoting the development of small and medium-sized businesses by reducing financial and administrative costs; creation of opportunities for attracting working and investment resources with an acceptable cost in the most significant sectors of the economy.

Bibliography

1. Customs Code of the Customs Union (Appendix to the agreement on the Customs Code of the Customs Union, adopted by the Decision of the Interstate Council of the EurAsEC at the level of heads of state dated November 27, 2009 No. 17) (as amended on April 16, 2010).
2. Federal Law of December 21, 2013 No. 372 - FZ “On Amendments to the Federal Law “On Export Control”.
3. Decree of the Government of the Russian Federation dated January 27, 2015 No. 98-r “On approval of the plan of priority measures to ensure sustainable economic development and social stability in 2015”.

For the collection of statistical data on foreign trade operations, the assessment of VO is very important, since it is then used to calculate:

• trade balance;
• average prices;
• efficiency of foreign trade operations in general and other significant parameters.

Foreign trade turnover is closely related to the concept of foreign trade.

What is foreign trade

Trade relations of one state with other countries, including import operations (import) and export operations (export) of goods, are called foreign trade. This term applies exclusively to individual countries.

Foreign trade helps:

• receive additional income from the sale of the national product abroad;
• to saturate the internal market of the state;
• increase labor productivity;
• cope with limited resources within the country.

In the aggregate, foreign trade transactions of different states form world (international) trade. International trade is the oldest form of economic relations between states, which has a huge impact on the development of the world economy as a whole.

How is foreign trade turnover calculated?

So, the main concepts of foreign trade are export and import.

• Exports - the total volume of goods produced in the country, which is exported from it for a certain time period.
• Import - a set of goods produced outside a certain state and imported into it for a certain period.

Export and import transactions are recorded at the moment when the goods cross the border. They are displayed in foreign economic and customs statistics. The export operation of the state-seller corresponds to the import operation of the state-buyer.

As a rule, exports are recorded at FOB (free of board) prices. In international trade relations, this means that the price of the goods includes the costs of its transportation on board an international vessel or other transport and insurance until the completion of loading.

Imports are accounted for at CIF prices (cost, insurance, freight). This means that the price of the goods includes the costs of its transportation and insurance, customs fees to the port of shipment of the buyer. That is, all these costs are borne by the seller. The formula for the total volume of foreign trade turnover is as follows:

VO = Import of goods + Export of goods

The country's VO is calculated in monetary units, since different goods cannot be compared in physical terms, for example, in tons, liters or meters.

How is the balance of foreign trade turnover calculated?

The balance of foreign trade turnover is also a significant concept for assessing the economy of a particular country. It can be calculated using the following formula:

VO balance \u003d Export of goods - import of goods

The balance of foreign trade turnover can be either positive or negative. A positive VO balance (the state sells more than it buys) indicates the growth of the economy. On the contrary, a negative balance indicates that the market is oversaturated with imported goods, and the interests of the domestic producer may be infringed.

World trade turnover

World trade is the sum of the exports of all countries, which is expressed in US dollars.

The participation of a state in world trade is displayed by such indicators as export and import quotas.

• Export quota - the ratio of export operations to gross domestic product (GDP). This indicator allows you to understand what part of the goods and services produced within the state is sold on the international market.
• Import quota - the ratio of import operations to the volume of domestic consumption of the state's products. Shows the share of goods imported into the country in domestic consumption.

Statistical data on world foreign trade turnover are collected, summarized and systematized. For this, international nomenclatures were developed (they are taken into account in the course of building national foreign trade classifications).

Economic processes in Russia are complex and ambiguous. In the first half of the 1990s, the Russian economy experienced a deep recession, caused by the consequences of a large-scale transition from a centralized economy to a market economy, but at the same time significantly exacerbated by a number of political factors. In terms of its foreign economic potential, Russia has lagged far behind many countries in the world community. Since the second half of the nineties, some revival of the Russian economy began, but, unfortunately, it was not due to the modernization of production, but to the use of international loans to organize the extraction and export of natural resources abroad, to purchase consumer goods in other countries.

Only with the beginning of the 21st century did a real recovery begin in the Russian economy, financial stabilization appeared, and the living standards of the population began to rise. However, the appearance of these positive results is largely due to the favorable conjuncture of world energy prices.

Under such conditions, the political goals and objectives of the state become a particularly important motive for all foreign economic activity. They significantly influence the choice of regional areas and specific partners in foreign economic relations, the nature and extent of relations with various countries, and the forms of using international cooperation in the interests of Russia's socio-economic development. The study of these aspects of the interaction between politics and economics in the foreign activities of the Russian state is of current importance. It allows a deeper understanding of the interaction of the country's internal development with the possibilities of its international activity, to evaluate the effectiveness of foreign economic activity from the standpoint of Russia's national interests.

On the whole, despite the remaining tension in the world financial markets, the situation in Russia's foreign trade was characterized by positive trends. However, some unfavorable signs in macro indicators touched the foreign economic sphere. This is a rapid growth in imports, mainly due to the growth in physical volumes.

According to the WTO rating, according to preliminary data, the Russian Federation ranked 12th in the world in terms of the value of exports of goods - $ 355 billion. At the same time, the nominal annual growth rate increased by 17%, and the real one - by less than 6%. The share of Russia in international exports amounted to 2.6%. In terms of the value of imports of goods ($223 billion, the growth rate is 35%), Russia moved up to 16th position, and its share in total imports reached 1.6%. As a result, in terms of import growth rates, Russia ranked first in the world among the leading trading powers.

Excluding intra-regional trade of 27 EU countries and individual members of the group, Russia ranked 7th in terms of merchandise exports and 10th in terms of imports of goods in the world.

In the rating of countries - providers of commercial services (38 billion dollars, growth rate - 25%), the Russian Federation again took 25th place, and its share was 1.2%. In the field of import of commercial services ($44.3 billion, growth rate - 15%), Russia rose to 16th position in the world, and its share was 1.9% (in 2006, respectively, 18th place and 1.7%).

Foreign economic relations of Russia with the countries of the European Union

In the geographic structure of Russia's foreign trade, the most important place is occupied by the European Union. It accounted for 51.6% of Russian trade turnover, the CIS countries - 15.3%, which is higher than a year earlier. During this time, the share of APEC countries increased from 16.4% to 19.1%. Russia's main foreign trade partners among the EU member states remain Germany, the Netherlands and Italy, which account for almost half of Russia's foreign trade with the EU or 28.7% of Russia's foreign trade with far abroad countries. The main foreign trade partners of Russia among the APEC countries are China, Japan, the USA and the Republic of Korea, accounting for 87.7% of foreign trade turnover with this group of countries or 19.8% of foreign trade turnover with non-CIS countries. Among the CIS countries, the main foreign trade partners are Belarus, Kazakhstan and Ukraine, which account for 88.1% of foreign trade turnover with the CIS countries.

A significant predominance of Russian exports over imports is typical for trade with the Netherlands, Italy, where the share of exports in the turnover was 91.7% and 75.7%. The same proportions in Russian trade turnover were typical for trade with Poland, Finland, India, Turkey, Belarus and Kazakhstan. Almost equal proportions between exports and imports have developed in Russia's trade with Germany and the United States.

The European Union is Russia's largest trading partner and accounts for more than half of Russia's foreign trade. Investments, services and cooperative ties play an increasingly important role in our relations. The numbers show a clear positive, but is everything really good here? An analysis of the situation of the upcoming renewal of the legal framework for economic cooperation between Russia and the EU indicates the presence of at least two vectors. One is building on the results achieved, removing deadlocks and barriers, expanding opportunities, and further liberalizing economic relations. The other is the politicization of the issues of the Russia-EU partnership. At the same time, the initiative of politicization does not belong to Russia, but to European countries, among which the new members of the European Union stand out in particular. Speaking about the evolution of Russia's foreign policy on economic issues in relation to the European Union as an organization as a whole. It should be noted that the development of the economic dialogue cannot be imagined without taking into account the situation in the world. But if we consider the evolutionary changes in Russia's economic cooperation with the countries that are members of the European Union, then we will see a number of features.

Considering the economic dialogue between Russia and Italy, we can say that Italy is one of Russia's leading trading partners among Western countries. In recent years, a steady growth trend has continued in Russian-Italian trade and economic relations.

The successful development of bilateral relations is based on a solid economic foundation. In terms of trade turnover, Italy ranks third among Russia's trading partners among Western countries. Bilateral trade turnover amounted to 23.465 billion US dollars, while Russian exports - 19.06 billion US dollars, imports - 4.40 billion US dollars. The main issues of bilateral trade and economic cooperation are considered by the Russian-Italian Council for Economic, Industrial, Monetary and Financial Cooperation. In recent years, high-tech and space industries have become priority areas for bilateral economic cooperation. The commodity structure of Russian-Italian trade has not changed significantly in recent years. In Russian exports to Italy, the main role traditionally belongs to energy carriers. Natural gas continues to be the most important commodity in Russian exports to Italy. In the commodity composition of Russian imports from Italy, the predominant place still belongs to consumer goods. Machinery goods remain the second most important group. The shares of all other commodity groups practically did not change. Monetary and financial cooperation is moving to a new qualitative level. Its characteristic feature is the transition from the provision of loans under state guarantees to normal interbank interaction, which provides for the use of financial instruments that do not affect Russia's external debt. One of the priority areas for attracting Italian capital is the electric power industry. One of the priority areas of economic cooperation is cooperation in the field of high technologies.

If we look at Russian-German relations, we can say the following. Germany is Russia's main economic partner in the world. Its share in Russia's foreign trade is more than 10%, and Russia's in Germany's foreign trade is about 2.5%. Mutual trade turnover reached a record high of $32.9 billion. The volume of trade between Russia and Germany increased by 30% and reached $30.9 billion. the German companies E.ON Ruhrgas and BASF, as well as the adoption of the Statement at the highest level on cooperation in the field of energy within the framework of the working visit to the Federal Republic of Germany of the President of Russia Vladimir Putin. Germany is the main creditor of Russia (it accounted for more than 40% of Russian debts under the Paris Club line) and one of the largest investors. In Berlin, a final agreement was signed and implemented with Germany on the early repayment of the balance of the external debt of Russia and the former USSR in the amount of 10.4 billion US dollars (8.14 billion euros). Germany is Russia's most important trading partner, accounting for 13.6 percent of all Russian foreign trade. Russia for Germany, based on absolute financial indicators, is the 10th most important trading partner and trade with it is about 3 percent of the total. However, the import of Russian energy carriers is of a strategic nature for Germany. Already today, Germany imports more than 30 percent of natural gas and 20 percent of oil from Russia, and according to experts, this share will increase even more in the future. Russia imports many engineering products from Germany.

Speaking about Russian-Belgian relations, one can single out a number of factors that determine the direction of economic cooperation between the two countries. The state and prospects of trade, economic, monetary, financial and investment cooperation between the two countries, relations with international economic organizations, relationships at the regional and sectoral levels are discussed at meetings of the Mixed Commission on Economic Cooperation between Russia and the Belgian-Luxembourg Economic Union.

Considering Russian-Greek relations in the context of evolutionary development, a number of factors can be noted. There is an upward trend in the field of mutual trade. According to Russian customs statistics, the trade turnover between Russia and Greece amounted to 1429.2 million dollars, including Russian exports - 1262.2 million dollars, imports - 167.0 million dollars. in particular, the implementation of the Agreement on the supply of Russian natural gas to Greece of 1987. Speaking about the development of Russian-Greek economic relations, we can say that their development is aimed at a long-term and stable perspective. Trade turnover is increasing from year to year, which indicates a fairly strong and promising cooperation.

Summing up the results of this paragraph, we have come to a number of conclusions. Speaking about the evolution of Russia's foreign policy on economic issues in relation to the European Union as an organization as a whole. It should be noted that the development of the economic dialogue cannot be imagined without taking into account the situation in the world. Russia's cooperation with the countries that are members of the European Union is a long-term perspective. This type of cooperation is developing very dynamically. As for the evolutionary changes in economic cooperation, we can say that in the conditions of modern world trade, it has a fairly stable development.

Foreign economic relations of Russia with other countries

Considering Russian-American relations, we see that the structure of Russian exports to the United States is traditionally characterized by a raw material orientation. The share of machinery and equipment in it continues to be insignificant. However, a study of the US market and an analysis of the capabilities of American companies show that Russia makes little and poor use of the United States as a supplier of new equipment and a partner in the development of new technologies. There are also real opportunities to expand Russian exports by increasing the supply of a number of highly processed goods, as well as services. According to the Ministry of Economic Development, goods of the fuel and raw material group dominate in the export of goods from Russia to the United States, primarily oil and oil products (28.0%), which was facilitated primarily by the favorable price situation for these goods. The volume of supplies of oil and oil products in 2007 amounted to 2252.7 million dollars. Ferrous metals accounted for 17.0% of Russian exports to the United States (1367.0 million dollars), aluminum and products from it - 15.4% ( 1239.6 million dollars). The volume of deliveries of inorganic chemistry products (1121.1 million dollars - 13.9% of all Russian exports to the USA), as well as precious and semi-precious stones, metals, natural and cultured pearls (1027.4 million dollars - 12, 7%). A significant share fell on fertilizers (201.0 million dollars), wood and products from it (132.0 million dollars), some products of the machine-building industry (244.3 million dollars).

Russian imports from the USA were dominated by general engineering products and vehicles (about 65%). A significant share in imports was occupied by means of land transport and their parts - 19.1% (1802.1 million dollars), nuclear reactors, boilers, equipment and mechanical devices - 18.5% (1745.0 million dollars). Few, but still, pharmaceutical products ($360.8 million), plastics and products made from them, other chemical products ($337.3 million), perfumes, cosmetics, soaps and detergents (280 .0 million dollars). A significant share of products imported from the United States last year (more than 12%) was still accounted for by food products, primarily meat and meat by-products, the volume of imports of which amounted to 851.0 million dollars.

According to the United States, trade is hindered by protectionist restrictions imposed by the Russian State Duma. For example, as noted in the annual report of the US Department of Commerce, Russia has slightly reduced tariffs on a number of food products. However, it is still not profitable to import alcohol, medicines and communication devices into Russia due to additional fees and duties, as well as licensing and registration requirements. Huge customs duties and taxes on imported goods "virtually prevent Russian airlines from purchasing foreign aircraft," the report notes. Tariffs and taxes increase the prices of American cars and SUVs by 70%.

If we consider Russian-Chinese relations, it is clearly seen that in recent years Russian-Chinese relations can be characterized as follows: cooperation between our countries in the political, trade, economic, humanitarian fields, as well as in the field of public diplomacy, has received comprehensive and in-depth development. Sino-Russian relations have become one of the most active and lively relations between the major powers of the modern world. The rapid development of China-Russia partnership and strategic cooperation not only brings real benefits, but also plays an important stimulating role in protecting world peace and stability. Bilateral trade and economic ties are also developing rapidly. Economic and investment cooperation has yielded encouraging results. China and Russia regard the development of a partner as an opportunity for their own development and are making every effort to expand technical and economic cooperation. For six years in a row, trade between China and Russia has maintained a rapid growth trend. By 2020, China's total investment in Russia will amount to $12 billion. China's investment volume in Russia has already reached about $2.2 billion.

Consider trade and economic relations between Russia and the countries of Latin America. The activation of relations with the Latin American world is an objective necessity. Moreover, the current situation in the countries of the continent opens up certain prospects for Russia. Diplomatic relations have been established with all 33 sovereign republics of the region. Relations are being restored or established in other areas, primarily in the field of trade and economic cooperation. True, the volume of annual trade barely exceeds $6 billion, which is far from meeting the capabilities of the parties. Russia today is not capable of laying claim to something serious geopolitically in the Southern Hemisphere. But it can also cooperate and expand its niche in such areas as high technology, the peaceful use of atomic energy and space exploration, energy, oil and gas production, metallurgy, pharmaceuticals, the fishing industry, agricultural and road engineering, and the agro-industrial complex. At least the leading countries of the Southern Cone consider Russia a promising partner.

Economic sanctions of the EU countries??? Well... then --