"Decision Efficiency" can be thought of as the efficiency of designing a solution and the efficiency of implementation management decisions, which corresponds to two stages (stages) of the managerial decision-making process. Each of them can use its own approaches to evaluation and performance indicators.

under efficiency in general view the effectiveness of something (production, management, labor) is understood.

Key performance indicators include:

1. Net profit

2. Expected return and risk

3. Costs

4. Volumes of production and sales

5. Payback period

6. Prestige

7. \competitiveness

In this case, not only quantity, but also quality indicators are used, for the evaluation of which they resort to the help of experts.

In this case, the following requirements for indicators can be distinguished:

2. Measurability - the value of the indicator can always be measured in some scale

3. Completeness - allow you to fully and adequately evaluate the result

4. Minimality - the vector indicator should consist of a small number of private indicators.

Control- this is one of the main functions of management, which is a process of ensuring the achievement of the goals set by the organization, the implementation of the adopted management decisions.

With the help of control, the management of the organization determines the correctness of its decisions and establishes the need for their adjustment.

Control process is, on the one hand, the process of setting standards, measuring the actual results achieved and their deviations from established standards; on the other hand, the process of tracking the implementation of the adopted management decisions and evaluating the results achieved in the course of their implementation.

It is the results of the control that are the basis for the leaders of the organization to correct the decisions made earlier, if the deviations in the course of the implementation of the decisions made earlier are significant.

The main reason for the need for control is uncertainty, which is an integral element of the future and inherent in any management decision, the implementation of which is expected in the future.

Control is divided into:

Preliminary control carried out before the start of work. At this stage, the rules, procedures and line of conduct are monitored to ensure that the work is progressing in the right direction. At this stage, as a rule, human, material and financial resources are controlled.

Control of incoming and outgoing information from the organization is an independent management task that no manager has the right to neglect.

current control carried out directly in the course of work by the organization in accordance with the decisions made. As a rule, it is carried out by the immediate supervisor and is based on the measurement of the actual results of the work done.

Feedback is the main instrument of control. It allows you to identify emerging deviations in the course of work and make corrective decisions.

Final control carried out after the work is done. If during the final control there is no opportunity to directly influence the progress of the work, then the results of the control can be taken into account during subsequent work.

When establishing a control system, it is advisable to adhere to such principles as:

─ meaningfulness and unambiguous perception of standards by employees;

- two-way communication with employees;

─ lack of excessive control;

Expected to set rigid but achievable standards;

Expected rewards for achieving established standards and norms.

The fate of Greece and the Eurozone is being decided these minutes in Brussels at an emergency summit of the leaders of the 17 countries that make up the European Union. It's about about urgent assistance to Greece, which is in debt crisis, and, in fact, about the fate of the common European currency. The most serious players on the European market - Germany and France - have been continuously consulting for many hours all night to agree on a common position before general negotiations.

The main intrigue of the emergency EU summit is hidden behind the ornate wording and well-crafted speeches of EU leaders and officials. It is in response to the question: are the Europeans ready and willing to agree to a default, albeit partial, on Greek sovereign bonds, government debt securities, for which Greece must pay off in the next 9 years?

German Chancellor Angela Merkel and French President Nicolas Sarkozy, leaders of the EU's most powerful economies, agreed on a new rescue package for the Greek economy yesterday. After seven hours of negotiations, they brought her to Brussels to present to the rest of the leaders.

"I think this new aid package for Greece is an important signal; with this program we want to tackle the problems at the root, that is, the problems of debt and competitiveness must be solved simultaneously; these are the two main reasons why we have problems in the eurozone," German Chancellor Angela Merkel said.

Greece has already received 110 billion euros in aid from the EU in exchange for drastic fiscal cuts and social programs. Despite mass protests and street riots, which gradually began to look more like battles, Athens clearly complied with all the requirements of the EU. But the miracle didn't happen. Debts of 350 billion euros, like a weight, drag the Greek economy to the bottom of the crisis. And they may well drag the whole of Europe there. So the new lifeline is no longer just a loan, although Greece will receive it. Another 120 billion euros at low interest. But there is also a cunning plan to extend the duration of Greece's debt obligations by 10 years. Such a restructuring, according to some experts, is more like a technical default. But the choice is not great. The alternative is the withdrawal of this country from the euro area. And the EU simply cannot allow the destruction of the eurozone. After all, this is a blow not only to the single currency, but also to the very idea of ​​European integration.

"The decline of the euro is only the beginning of more dramatic shocks, such as the collapse of the European Union. Most of the leaders of European states, and primarily the leadership of Germany, are aware of this risk and are doing everything to avoid it," said a leading specialist at the French Institute of International Relations. Philippe Moreau Defarge.

There is no doubt that for the sake of preserving the eurozone, the EU countries could well make more serious concessions regarding Greek debts. The cost of failure is too high. But it is not easy to agree on this program either. We must remember that some other countries are close to bankruptcy.

"This will be a very bad example for other states that are in the same difficulties. A country like Portugal or Italy can say: why does Europe forgive the debts of the Greeks, and why not us?", - said the expert of the German Council on Foreign Policy Alexander Rahr .

That is why negotiations in the bowels of the EU headquarters continued until late in the evening. Everything suggests that not only Greece will receive preferential loans. But also Portugal and Ireland. Moreover, the period of repayment of loans, according to available information, will increase to 15 years. According to experts, the program is large-scale, and the measures are quite adequate to the situation. This is confirmed by the reaction of the market. It has not yet been published, and EU financial platforms have already begun to grow steadily. However, today it is unlikely that anyone will undertake to predict how the situation will develop. After all, the main cause of the debt crisis - an economic model that encourages economic growth through external borrowing - is still in demand in the world.

Economist Mikhail Khazin answered the questions of the Vremya program:

Question: "Greece" and "Euro" are words that are not alien to many Russians: some go on vacation abroad, some keep savings in the European currency. Is there a threat to this money now, and if so, how can it be reduced?

Answer: I think that the word "threat" is completely inappropriate here, because there will be absolutely no fast processes. Yes, indeed, crisis processes continue in Europe, the debt crisis of Greece, Portugal, Spain, and now Italy is really taking place. But at the same time, there is no even certainty that the euro will fall as a result of these processes, because, on the one hand, of course, crisis processes and the currency should fall, on the other hand, if, say, Greece leaves the euro area, in this case it will have there will be a healthier core and the euro may even strengthen. For this reason, I would not succumb to much panic.

Question: Europe is an important buyer Russian oil and gas. We, in turn, import goods from there, and therefore problems can, of course, also affect Russia. In your opinion, can these problems affect, for example, prices in Russian stores?

Answer: Prices in stores, theoretically, may even fall a little because of this, because prices usually fall during a crisis - deflationary effects. On the other hand, there may be a shortage of food, although in Europe there is a clear oversupply of it. I would say that the main threat to Russia is the reduction in demand for the main export product - oil and gas. But I don't see any quick negative changes here either. Therefore, I do not rule out that this autumn, for example, oil prices may fall slightly, but still no critical values ​​​​will be reached yet. Crisis processes are developing, but it is happening rather slowly.

Question: Another important economic topic is not about Europe, but about America. The American President, Congress, Senate are now conducting very tense negotiations in order to prevent the so-called "technical default", its possibility is still preserved, the deadlines have also been determined - until August 2. How real is the threat of a new global economic crisis in this regard?

Answer: I do not think that this technical default can cause any serious consequences. The point is not that the United States of America is abandoning its obligations. There is simply a small legal difficulty that does not allow them to pay off their debts, and they will overcome this difficulty. The whole problem is political. In the United States, the election campaign has just begun. The main problem lies elsewhere: this crisis only shows that, in fact, global economic problems continue, and in this sense, we must be ready to respond to these processes, the main danger of which, as I have already said, is the fall in world oil prices.

IMPLICATIONS FOR DECISION-MAKING

One researcher summarizes the implications of this kind of complexity for management Organizations operating in a simple environment have one advantage: they have to deal with only a few categories of data needed for decision making. 12 that in a less complex environment, a less complex organizational structure is needed. And here, remember that, since different organizations operate in different environments, the situational approach tells us that there is no best organizational structure.

In the situation described above, it is important that the notion of relevance is applied consistently. Salary costs for DS Co's permanent staff are not material to a decision on a new contract and should be completely excluded from the analysis. The opportunity cost is due to the decision, and it would be illogical to argue that some costs are irrelevant to the decision as a whole, but are relevant in assessing the details of one of the consequences of this decision.

In practical life, similar problems are typical. The interests of the company as a whole in the long run conflict with the interests of specific individuals or their groups for shorter periods. In such a situation, when evaluating the activities of specific managers and departments, it is necessary to include in the analysis the possible negative consequences of making a decision that is beneficial for the company as a whole.

Why You Should Learn Pricing Methods Different methods set a particular price according to certain circumstances or for different purposes. Some of the methods give the manager a minimum price he or she can accept to secure a profit. To make a final pricing decision, the manager must consider all of these proposed settlement prices. The more information a manager has, the more reasonable and thoughtful his decision will be. Recall that various methods and approaches only provide information for decision making. The manager must choose the most appropriate price (under the given conditions and circumstances) and evaluate the consequences of making such a decision.

Denial of service is a very significant and pervasive threat that originates from AIT itself. Such a failure is especially dangerous in situations where a delay in providing resources to the subscriber can lead to serious consequences for him. Thus, the absence of the user of the data necessary for making a decision during the period of time when this decision can still be effectively implemented can lead to irrational or even antitrust actions.

Accounting for negative consequences. Management decision making is, in many ways, the art of finding effective compromises where gains in some outcomes lead to losses in others. The problem with the decision-making process under conditions of possible negative consequences is to compare the disadvantages of a particular decision with its advantages in order to obtain the greatest overall gain. When criteria are chosen for decision making, negative consequences should be interpreted and used as constraints.

A serious problem is also ignoring the future economic consequences of decision-making in order to achieve a high value of the estimated performance indicator in the short period. For example, in order to maximize the volume of products sold, marketers can use a discount system, paying less attention to advertising, market research, and the creation of new distribution channels. All this in the long run will lead to negative consequences.

Depending on the nature of the causes of quality change and their consequences, the expected success lies in a wide range. Full coincidence of expected and actual success is rare. As a rule, the actual result is slightly lower than expected. And yet we say that in preparing and making a decision there is always hope for success. It is the final argument for decision making in product quality management.

We note another interesting case of a comprehensive and systematic study of the decision-making process , where it is identified with forecasting the boundaries of the area of ​​possible consequences of the implementation of these controls in various conditions, which may arise in the course of the future functioning of the predicted system

Consider the methods of comparing alternatives for making decisions in a passive environment. To characterize the features of managing a one-time management process, we assume that the subject is dealing with unique solution, the result of the implementation of which is significant and long term determines its (economic) position. Examples of such a decision can serve as a choice (by the Ministry of location, options for technical equipment, etc. parameters large enterprise determination by the family of the place, type, size and ways of building their own home; choice by the young specialist of the place of residence and work. Possible, although unlikely irreparable losses or losses, insurmountable difficulties, etc. negative results with fatal consequences for the business entity, often require the exclusion from consideration of tempting but dangerous alternatives of action. In this case, an objective attitude to risk, the subject's propensity for risky actions (optimism) or his deviation from risk (pessimism), is of particular importance.

ECONOMIC DIAGNOSIS OF THE ENTERPRISE - a comprehensive analysis and assessment of the economic performance of the enterprise based on the study of individual results, incomplete information in order to identify possible prospects for its development and the consequences of current management decisions. As a result of diagnostics, based on an assessment of the state of the economy and its efficiency, conclusions are drawn that are necessary for making decisions on targeted lending, buying or selling an enterprise, closing it, etc.

The environmental impact analysis of the project is intended to better understand the consequences associated with the implementation of the project. These consequences, as well as beneficial and harmful effects of human activities on the environment, are studied and evaluated from technical, financial and socio-economic points of view and to the extent that they are necessary for making a decision on the implementation of the project.

This condition of partial ignorance is different from what is used in the mathematical sciences for decision making under risk and uncertainty. In the latter case, it is assumed that all possible solutions are known. Uncertainty and risk have a certain degree corresponding to the likelihood of their occurrence or possible consequences.

In practice, it turns out that the interests of the enterprise and the interests of the national economy do not coincide in a number of points. For decision-making at the enterprise level, it is not so much abstract considerations about national economic efficiency that are of primary importance, but its specific consequences - material and moral incentives for its leaders, the size of funds to improve production conditions and encourage employees of the enterprise. While, for example, the assessment of the activity of an enterprise is carried out on the basis of indicators for fulfilling the plan for the total volume of output (commodity output, sales volume), it often seeks to increase the output of material-intensive and expensive products, without caring whether this decision is beneficial to the national economy.

Figure 4.1 shows the "C-cycle", which allows you to maintain the organization in a sustainable state and increase its potential. The potential of an organization determines the range of alternative opportunities that an enterprise can use, although in order to decide on their use, it is necessary to determine whether the commitments made will lead to an increase in cash. After making these decisions, it is necessary to monitor and analyze the consequences (depending on success or failure). This creates the conditions for a subsequent increase in potential.

In cases where it is impossible to calculate the risk, risky decisions are made using heuristics, which is a set of logical techniques and methodological rules for theoretical research and finding the truth. Risk management has its own system of heuristic rules and techniques for making decisions under risk conditions 1) you can’t risk more than your own capital can afford 2) you always need to think about the consequences of risk 3) you can’t risk a lot for the sake of a little 4) a positive decision is made only in the absence doubts 5) in the presence of doubts, negative decisions are made 6) one cannot think that there is always one solution. Perhaps there are others.

Every person in his personal and public life uses models to make decisions. The mental image of the world around us is a model. A person does not carry complete images of a family, business, government or country. It only selects concepts and relationships, which it then uses to envision the actual system. A mental image is a model, but, unfortunately, the model is not strict but blurry, it is imperfectly, inaccurately formulated and can change over time for the same person, even during a conversation. The human mind selects certain concepts that may or may not be true and uses them to describe the world around us. Based on these assumptions, a person evaluates the behavior of the system and thinks about what action should be taken to change it. However, this process often leads to errors due to the fact that the human mind is highly adapted to the analysis of the elemental forces and actions that make up the system, but, as experience shows, is not adapted to assess the dynamic consequences of the development of fairly complex systems.

NOT READINESS. Sometimes you procrastinate just because you're just not ready for that particular task. You may not have all the information you need to make a decision, or feel unprepared for the consequences of the project.

The choice that an individual will make in a given situation is made up of (1) his skills, knowledge, character and personality traits in the form in which they have been shaped by all previous life experience, and (2) from the specific influences that he is subjected to in decision point. In most cases, the former is much more important in determining its behavior than the latter. When the playground administrator changes the program for the day because the weather is bad, he is reacting to an immediate factor, but that factor will have no bearing on his decisions tomorrow or the day after. It does not change his skills or his personality type in any way.

The fact that the Keynesian aggregate supply curve slopes upward has important implications for practical economic decision making. As we will see below, under these conditions the state

What are the consequences for making an investment decision if it is impossible to correctly calculate the cost of capital

Kanban (see [K 13]) and MCI (see [M 126]). The OPT system, like the Kanban system, belongs to the class of "pull" (see [C 95]) systems for organizing supply and production. Some Western experts, not without reason, believe that OPT is actually a computerized version of the Kanban system, with the essential difference that OPT prevents the occurrence of bottlenecks in the supply-production-sales chain, and Kanban allows you to effectively eliminate bottlenecks that have already arisen. . The main principle of the OPT system is the identification of bottlenecks in the production system or, in the terminology of its creators, critical resources. As critical resources, for example, stocks of raw materials and materials, machinery and equipment, technological processes, personnel can act. The efficiency of the production system as a whole depends on the efficiency of the use of critical resources, while the intensification of the use of other resources, called non-critical, has practically no effect on the development of the system. The loss of critical resources has an extremely negative impact on the production system as a whole, while the saving of non-critical resources does not bring real benefits in terms of final results. The number of critical resources for each production system averages five. Based on the principle discussed above, firms using the OPT system do not seek to provide one hundred percent utilization of workers employed in non-critical operations, since the intensification of the labor of these workers will lead to an increase in work in progress and other undesirable consequences. Firms encourage the use of the working time reserve of such workers for advanced training, holding meetings of quality circles (see [K 179]), etc. In the OPT system on a computer, a number of problems of operational management of production are solved, including the formation of a production schedule for one day, a week, etc. When forming a production schedule close to optimal, the following criteria are used: 1. The degree of satisfaction of the production need for resources. 2. Efficiency in the use of resources. 3. Funds withdrawn from funds of work in progress. 4. Schedule flexibility, i.e. the possibility of its implementation during emergency shutdowns of equipment and undersupply of material resources. When implementing the schedule, the OPT system controls the use of production resources for the manufacture of ordered products for fixed time intervals. The duration of these intervals is determined expert way. During each interval, decisions are made on the operational management of the production process. To facilitate decision-making, the priorities of each type of product are determined programmatically using weight functions, the so-called management coefficients (order rate, production time, etc.) and other criteria (allowable level of insurance stocks, date of shipment of manufactured products, etc.) . Based on the list of product priorities, the computer plans the maximum provision of resources for products that have the highest (zero) priority, and the provision of all other products - in descending order.

1. TECHNOLOGY AND PROCEDURES FOR DEVELOPING AND MAKING MANAGEMENT DECISIONS

1.3. Consequences of decision-making for scientific and technical and economic development

Most decisions made by managers and by all of us have only a minor impact on the course of events. In a few days or years, no one remembers these decisions. It is all the more interesting to discuss the specific decision of the manager, which at first seemed as ordinary as many of his other decisions. However, later the true meaning of this decision became clear, which largely determined the development of mankind as a whole in the second half of the 20th century. We are talking about the decision of US President Roosevelt, which marked the beginning of the American atomic project. The specific facts presented in this section demonstrate the great importance in modern world strategic management, innovation and investment management and the role of decision theory in these economic disciplines.

1.3.1. Retrospective analysis of the development of fundamental and applied research in nuclear physics

It is expedient to start the analysis of the situation with the events of a hundred years ago - with the discovery of radioactivity. This discovery, of course, must be considered the result of fundamental scientific research. Note that the researchers did not take security measures, and some harm was done to the health of the discoverers. However, it cannot be said that work with radioactive substances has led to a significant reduction in their life expectancy. Moreover, in the first half of the twentieth century there was an opinion about the stimulating (i.e. useful!) effect of weak radioactive exposure.

For several decades, nuclear physics has been developing within the framework of fundamental science. Back in the mid-1930s, one of the most prominent figures in this field, Rutherford, believed that nuclear physics would not receive practical applications in the coming decades.

As we now know, he was wrong. However, Rutherford's error is associated with the actions of a particular person or a small group of people. We are talking about the famous letter from Einstein to US President Roosevelt. This letter was the impetus for the start of work on the creation of atomic weapons in the United States.

How to evaluate the fact of the beginning of these works - as a historical regularity or as a historical accident? In our opinion, the role of chance is great here. In other words, the role of the individual in history (the personality of Einstein and the personality of Roosevelt) manifested itself.

Consider possible scenarios for the development of events. Indeed, Einstein could, for example, have died earlier in a car accident. Although it is natural that there were many emigrant physicists from the countries of the fascist coalition in the USA, but in the absence of such an authoritative and well-known leader as Einstein, their attempts to draw the attention of the US government to the atomic problem would hardly have been successful.

Instead of Roosevelt, the President of the United States could have been a different person who would not have supported Einstein's initiative. The letter could simply not fall into the hands of the President of the United States, as happens with the vast majority of such appeals. Yes, and President Roosevelt himself, known to all of us, could well have dealt with Einstein's letter in a more standard way, for example, send it to the US Department of Defense for study, after which a long series of reviews and discussions would begin. The result would most likely be relatively little funding for pre-research work.

What would have happened if there had not been a positive decision by Roosevelt in response to Einstein's letter? Obviously, the atomic bomb would not have been created in the United States by 1945. As you know, Germany did not have time to finish it. Work in the USSR, stimulated by German developments (perhaps, and low-power - in the scenario under consideration - American), would also be very far from completion.

What can be assumed about the hypothetical post-war development? Most likely, both the USSR and the USA would have focused on post-war problems. We are talking about the restoration of the national economy (for the USSR), about changing the military orientation of the national economy to a peaceful one, about the employment of demobilized military personnel (a big problem for the USA), etc. Under the conditions of post-war perestroika, both the USSR and the USA would most likely have stopped expensive nuclear research. This means that the development of nuclear weapons (atomic, hydrogen, neutron, etc.), delivery vehicles, nuclear power plants, etc. moved far into the future.

There would also be more global implications. The atomic bombings of Hiroshima and Nagasaki in 1945 clearly demonstrated the applied value of fundamental science. After that, the world began to actively invest in basic and applied science and the rapid growth of organizations involved in R&D. In the USSR, about 100 thousand people worked in science and scientific services in the 1930s, and by the end of the 1980s - about 5,000 thousand people (an increase of 50 times). The process of rapid development of the sector of the national economy "science and scientific service" is considered, for example, in the work.

If it were not for the atomic bombings of Hiroshima and Nagasaki in 1945, in our opinion, there would not have been such an explosive growth of science. It can be assumed that the line of the previous decades of the 20th century would have continued more harmoniously, with the priority of engineering over purely research. Or, shall we say, research work would be considered in public opinion as part of the engineering activity.

Consider now scenarios in which Roosevelt, as he actually did, actively supported Einstein's proposal. The most interesting thing in the chronology of the atomic project was the coincidence in time of the completion of development and the end of World War II.

Indeed, consider two alternative scenarios - an earlier end of development or a later one.

Suppose an atomic bomb were made in the USA in 1944. Most likely, it would be used against Germany, since the American army suffered quite significant losses in the fight against Hitler (about 600 thousand Americans died in total). However, compared with conventional weapons (think of the bombing of Dresden), a few American atomic bombs would hardly have brought the end of the war much closer. At the same time, an analysis of the results of the use of atomic weapons could lead to their prohibition in the future.

The use of atomic weapons in 1944 against Japan would also not have led to a significant change in the course of the war - Japan was still strong enough that a few atomic explosions could affect its combat capability.

The fate of nuclear weapons in the scenario of their use in hostilities in 1944 could resemble the fate of chemical weapons after they were used in the First World War. Although tens of thousands of tons of chemical warfare agents are still stored on our planet, after the First World War it has always been "in the background" as officially prohibited for use, and its appearance has by no means led to an outbreak of interest in chemistry and science in general. .

The second scenario - the war is over, but the bomb is not ready. In this case, the most likely is the termination or a significant reduction in the intensity of work. In short, one would expect approximately the same development of events as in the case of the abandonment of the atomic project (see above).

So, for the development of fundamental and applied science in the second half of the twentieth century. Two events were of great importance:

US President Roosevelt's decision to develop an atomic project, taken in response to Einstein's letter;

Coincidence in time between the end of development and the end of World War II.

This coincidence made it possible to demonstrate to the leaders of the ruling elites of all major countries the power of fundamental science. Moreover, at the moment when these figures "freed themselves from the turnover" of the Second World War and began to think about the future.

The first of these events, as detailed above, was determined largely by subjective rather than objective factors. The second - the coincidence of two events on practically independent lines of development - cannot but be called a historical accident. Thus, the fate of scientific and technological development in the twentieth century. determined by the implementation of a very unlikely event.

1.3.2. On the development of science and technology in the second half of the twentieth century

As shown above, the nuclear bombing of Hiroshima and Nagasaki determined the development of the situation in the scientific and technical sphere for the entire second half of the 20th century.

For the first time in the history of the world, the leaders of the leading countries were clearly convinced that fundamental scientific research can bring great practical benefits (from the point of view of the leaders of the countries). Namely, to give a fundamentally new super-powerful weapon. The result was a broad organizational and financial support for fundamental and related applied research.

The opinion of the leadership was followed by public opinion. In the 1960s in the USSR, the most popular profession among young people was the profession of a physicist. As a result of the tilt to the side fundamental research, and it is in the field of exact sciences that very important areas have suffered. First of all, it is necessary to name engineering (including R & D - experimental design developments). Recall that in the 1930s, the profession of an aircraft designer was valued in public opinion much higher than the profession of a physicist. As a result of the distortion under consideration, the result of the work is often considered, somewhat coarsening, not a new technical product, but a new fundamental result (formulated, for example, in the form of an article in a journal containing a new formula).

In the future, people involved in certain areas of fundamental science, in particular, mathematics, began to consider indecent questions like: "For the solution of which specific applied problems can your scientific results be used?" Such an approach, of course, completely contradicts the classical views on science, for example, the views of the great French mathematician A. Poincare, who is characterized by a joint consideration of issues of mathematics and physics.

Let us pay attention to the fact that for many areas of fundamental science there is the possibility of almost endless self-development, i.e. consistent solution of ever new problems that arise within this area, without resorting to the problems of the outside world. Therefore, to work in the relevant field of fundamental science, you can invite as many employees as you like (with appropriate training and abilities). For example, according to a legend popular among mathematicians, Academician A.I. Maltsev liked to say that it was not difficult for him to draw up a program of work in algebra, for the implementation of which it would be necessary to involve the population of the entire globe.

It is natural for the field of fundamental science to go into self-development. But will society ultimately benefit from such research? On the one hand, the history of nuclear physics shows that sometimes it can be useful (from the point of view of country leaders). On the other hand, it may be doubted that studies whose connection with practice is not visible will ever lead to useful results. In particular, most of mathematical research in the second half of the twentieth century. is unlikely to ever be in demand by technical, economic and other developments.

The second bias is a bias towards the exact and natural sciences to the detriment of the sciences of man and society. Now one can only be amazed at how physicists and, for example, surgeons who suddenly found themselves in the arena of public attention, without a shadow of a doubt, communicated to the broad masses extremely dubious statements that clearly did not belong to their sphere. professional knowledge. No less striking is the complete confidence of listeners and readers of those years in such speeches.

If fundamental science developed mainly in a centralized manner, then individual ministries and departments paid tribute to fashion through the creation and development of various applied research institutes. Some of them were mainly engaged in engineering activities, although their employees were called research assistants. Other departmental research institutes actually performed part of the work of officials of the relevant departments - ministries and state committees.

As already mentioned, in terms of the number of people employed, the "science and scientific service" sector of the national economy has grown by about 50 times since pre-war times by the end of the 1980s. Such a rapid growth, obviously, could not but be accompanied by a decline in the quality of workers. In the 1980s, it was obvious to any impartial observer that scientific institutions were littered with a large number of people engaged in imitation of scientific work. At the same time, it is quite clear that the situation changed significantly from one research institute to another: in one, the ballast could be 10%, in another - 90%.

Explain how to simulate scientific work. In fundamental science, the true value of the results obtained is revealed only after many years. In the case of nuclear physics, more than forty years passed from the discovery of radioactivity to the creation of the atomic bomb. The current forms of fixing scientific results - research reports, articles in scientific and technical journals and collections, abstracts of reports at scientific and technical conferences - can contain both the results of a long difficult scientific search, and be a somewhat revised compilation of previously obtained scientific results. Note that works of the second type can be no less interesting and useful for readers (users) than the first.

Obviously, the exponential growth in the number of scientific personnel could not continue indefinitely. Experts in scientometrics wrote about this back in the 1960s (see, for example,). In Russia, growth gave way to a decline in the early 1990s (see Table 1 from the work). This drop in the number of scientific workers is connected with the general economic crisis of the 1990s. However, in other conditions, in particular, in the absence of "reforms", the dynamics of the development of science had to change. In the same way as economic dynamics should in the XXI century. change due to exhaustion (limitation) natural resources Earth.

Table 1. Number of employees performing research

and developments in Russia (thousand people) according to the work).

		Researchers and technicians	PhDs	PhDs

According to the data given in the work, the number of employees of scientific organizations for 4 years - from 1990 to 1994 - decreased by 43.1%, while the number of specialists performing research and development decreased by 47.8%, i.e. . almost double. The number of candidates of sciences fell (by 23.7%), while the number of doctors of sciences slightly increased and then stabilized. In general, the number of employees performing research and development has decreased annually by approximately 16%, i.e. by 1/6.

According to , in 1994, out of the total number of employees of scientific organizations, 26.2% were in the public sector, 5.1% - in the sector higher education and 68.7% - to the "entrepreneurial" sector. At the same time, according to the classification of scientific organizations used by the State Statistics Committee of the Russian Federation, the “entrepreneurial” sector includes scientific organizations that are part of various joint-stock companies, concerns, etc.; in the recent past, these were mainly branch research institutes.

To interpret the numerical data given in the work, it should be noted that it was calculated on the basis of the corresponding database of the State Statistics Committee of Russia. This database only takes into account research funding and not any scientific results. This especially affects the description of the university sector of science. It is well known that about half of the doctors and candidates of science work in universities. Thus, the main (full-time) teaching staff (full-time) in 1992 included 15,706 doctors and 115,334 candidates of science (see statistical collection, table 2.16 on p. 39). While according to the data in the same year, research and development was carried out by 17.8 thousand doctors and 114.3 thousand candidates of science. Comparing these two pairs of numbers against the absurdly low proportion of science in the higher education sector is perplexing. However, everything is easy. The fact is that the State Statistics Committee of the Russian Federation takes into account only the staff of scientific departments of universities. From the point of view of the State Statistics Committee, professors and associate professors do not conduct scientific research. That is why university science accounts for "according to the State Statistics Committee" 5.1%, i.e. about an order of magnitude less than its real share in Russian science. We also note that the total number of candidates and doctors of sciences in Russia is approximately twice as large as follows from the data of the State Statistics Committee of the Russian Federation (see, for example, Table 1). From what has been said, it is clear that Goskomstat data require careful analysis before being used for decision making.

In subsequent years, the decline in the number of employees in the "science and scientific services" sector continued, although the pace slowed down somewhat (see Table 2 from the statistical compendium, Table 2.12, p. 286). By the end of 1998, only 40% of researchers and technicians remained in science compared to their number at the end of 1990 - a reduction of 2.5 times. At the same time, by the end of 1998, all personnel engaged in research and development amounted to 45% of the level of the end of 1990 - a slightly smaller reduction, but about the same.

Table 2. R&D personnel

(at the end of the year; thousand people)

The reduction in the number of personnel engaged in research and development is the most obvious symptom of the weakening (more severely - destruction) of the domestic scientific and technical potential. Both world experience, including the experience of the United States, and the experience of the last 10 years in Russia clearly show that fundamental and applied science, scientific and technological progress, including industrial safety, should be primarily funded by the state. In accordance with the Federal Law "On Science and Science and Technology Policy", at least 4% of the expenditure side of the Russian budget should be allocated to (civilian) science. Real financing is described in Table 3.

Table 3. The share of science in the expenditure side federal budget RF (in %).

From the data in Table 3, it is obvious that the current The federal law from year to year is not observed, real funding is at least 2 times less than that fixed by this law. In foreign countries, a significantly larger part of the budget is allocated for financing science, up to 10% of the expenditure part of the budget.

1.3.3. About some directions of fundamental

and applied science

Let us analyze the influence of fundamental and applied science on the development and effective use new technology and technical progress. To do this, let us briefly consider the relationship between individual areas of fundamental and applied scientific research and the relevant aspects of technical progress, including the emergence of not only new technologies, but also new industries. Let us first of all pay attention to innovations (innovations), especially those that require significant capital investments (investments).

Even the very first glance at the structure of industry makes it possible to single out industries generated by the scientific and technological progress of the 20th century. These are primarily those that arose in the second half of the twentieth century. nuclear industry (nuclear weapons, nuclear power plants, surface and underwater vessels with nuclear engines, enterprises that produce everything that is necessary for nuclear reactors and nuclear weapons), space industry (space stations, civil and military satellites and delivery vehicles), electronic engineering (production and use of computers, their systems and networks, software).

If you look at an earlier period, then from the first half of the twentieth century. aviation industry, chemistry, electric power industry is a symbol of new technology and technical progress. Each of these industries was at one time at the forefront of progress. Consider, for example, the aviation industry. At the beginning of the twentieth century. - pioneering attempts and first records. To the first world war aviation units are already operating. Between the wars, the aviation industry apparently occupied the most prestigious place of all industries (after the Second World War, it was supplanted from this place by the space industry). The aircraft designer was the most prestigious of the engineers. The chemical industry in the USSR most rapidly developed, apparently, in the 1960s. The famous GOELRO plan gave a powerful impetus to the Soviet electric power industry.

If you understand the situation more deeply, then almost every industry is constantly in development under the influence of fundamental and applied scientific research and technological progress. The main production assets are constantly updated, new ones are introduced technological processes based on the achievements of fundamental and applied science. For example, the introduction of laser technology for quality control in mechanical engineering raises the level of quality assurance to a fundamentally new level.

Note the research on electricity. For a number of centuries, they served as an example of typical fundamental research, giving nothing to practice. Finally, in the first half of the nineteenth century. the telegraph appeared, which fundamentally changed the situation with communication - it became almost instantaneous (of course, between points connected by a telegraph line). (This was a revolution in the management of organizations with branches. Previously, each branch had to operate largely independently, since it took a long time to contact the center and get a response - days, weeks, or even months.) And in the second half of the nineteenth century the first electric light bulbs were invented, which radically changed both production and life of the twentieth century. (compared to the nineteenth century).

Fundamental and applied scientific research is actively used not only in industry, but also in agriculture(genetic engineering, microbiological additives, etc.), in medicine (tomographs and other medical equipment), in education (distance education, learning systems), in transport (computer navigation aids), in the entertainment industry (TVs and other radio electronic systems, disks CD-ROM), etc.

Let us consider some specific areas of new technology and technical progress generated by fundamental and applied scientific research.

When analyzing the influence of fundamental and applied science, it is quite reasonable to pay great attention to such classical areas of fundamental science as physics and chemistry. Many new sections of engineering and technology generated by technical progress are closely related to them. This was discussed above.

With the development of scientific and technological progress and the commissioning of complex technical systems various types, the weakness of the human link in the management of such systems was manifested. For example, aircraft speeds became such that the fighter pilot did not have time to respond to the maneuvers of his enemy, and the gunner of the anti-aircraft gun did not have time to track the maneuvers of the target. The speed of human reaction in man-machine systems has ceased to be adequate. More precisely, a "social order" has appeared for the creation of automatic control systems that operate (in whole or in part) without human intervention and replace a number of human functions. This "order" became very relevant in the middle of the twentieth century.

At first, this order was comprehended in the field of theory, and corresponding studies appeared in applied mathematics. In abstract terms, the corresponding mathematical problems were posed, approaches to their solution were developed, calculation methods were proposed and studied, and the corresponding theorems were proved. As a result, specific methods for setting and solving automatic control problems have been created.

Then the work moved from applied mathematics to the field of technical sciences. During this transition, abstract mathematical provisions were filled with specific technical content, associated with the activity of specific devices. They led to the emergence of the theory of automatic control and the corresponding technical devices which, without human intervention, can adequately respond to external disturbances and influences, make changes to the behavior of the controlled system in order to achieve the goal in the changed conditions.

The next step is a variety of applications of the theory of automatic control. First of all, let's name high-precision tracking systems that relieve the air defense operator (or other services related to tracking the enemy) from the need to manually track the target's maneuvers. The most important thing left for a person is to make a decision about the goal. Namely, we are talking about choosing from a spectrum possible solutions- from passive tracking of the movement of the target, its identification (in particular, determining its nationality) and forecasting its intentions to one or another impact on the target - informational, forceful, etc.

Decision making can also be partially automated. After the Second World War, a scientific direction called "Operations Research" began to develop, in which approaches and methods for making decisions in difficult situations. This scientific direction, for which the terms "cybernetics", "system analysis", "game theory" are significant, will be discussed separately. Here we note that we are considering another example of the fact that the synthesis of various areas of fundamental and applied scientific research is the main component of scientific and technological progress, which makes it possible to create modern technical systems with the help of advanced technologies.

The theory of automatic control is an essential part of the information support of modern attack and defense systems. The on-board computer of the aircraft, based on appropriate mathematical models, can independently make decisions, for example, on the release of interference (perceived by the enemy as targets, among which the real target is "lost"), on a prompt response to enemy actions, etc. The advantage compared to operational decisions made by a human pilot is speed - the computer takes many times less time. However, strategic decisions in attack and defense systems must be made by a person. A person should always be able to take control. Otherwise, we may find ourselves in a situation described in science fiction, for example, by S. Lem, when attack and defense systems endowed with the ability to make decisions develop autonomously, fight each other, and their creators - from both sides - cannot interfere in the process confrontation even when it is necessary to ensure strategic security on the basis of agreements between states.

Systems automatic control, allowing you to adjust the movement of the system, in particular, when pointing it at the target, made it possible to create high-precision weapons. Only high-tech technologies have made it possible to create high-precision weapons that can hit a certain point (for example, a building or a moving object), practically without affecting its environment.

The technologies under consideration have not only defense, but also important national economic applications, in particular, in mechanical engineering. They make it possible, in particular, to develop machine tools and technological processes that make it possible to produce products with complex profiles with minimal waste, quickly respond to changes in the properties of raw materials, materials and tools, and as a result ensure a modern level of manufacturing quality.

Fundamental and applied research in the field of continuum mechanics, in particular, in gas dynamics, made it possible to create a class of engines that was fundamentally new for its time - turbojet engines. They combine the advantages of rocket technology, capable of moving in a vacuum, and traditional aircraft engines using atmospheric air and its oxygen.

About rocket technology as one of the most striking symbols of technological progress in the twentieth century. needs to be said specifically. Until the twentieth century. rockets were used only in fireworks and in purely theoretical developments, of which Kibalchich (1881), a member of the Executive Committee of the Narodnaya Volya party, evokes the greatest purely human admiration. At the beginning of the twentieth century. rockets took the main place in the fantastic projects of interplanetary travel developed by Tsiolkovsky. And since the 1930s, systematic work began on their creation.

These works can be considered as a typical example of the influence of fundamental and applied science (mechanics, materials science, chemistry, etc.) on the development and effective use of new technology and technical progress in the military-industrial complex. Already during the Second World War, rockets were used as a means of delivering explosive charges (the Nazis fired at London with V-1 and V-2 rockets). In the same period, the first jet aircraft were created.

The next step is ballistic missiles, which made it possible to deliver nuclear charges to any point on the globe. They also ensured the launch of the first Soviet satellite and the first Soviet cosmonaut into orbit. These successes served as a powerful psychological weapon for the USSR, undermining the belief of a potential adversary (ie the USA) in the superiority of its economic system. In the books of American economists of the 1960s (for example, in the textbook "Economics" by P. Samuelson), the idea was constantly discussed that in the near future (namely, by the end of the 20th century) the economic power of the USSR would equal the economic power of the United States, and only a few random reasons for a year or two can delay this moment.

To date, rocket technology has reached such a level of development that flights to the planets of the solar system have become possible. Stop now, firstly, for the biological support of such flights (it is not known how the human body will react to such a long stay in weightlessness) and for the justification of the economic feasibility of interplanetary travel. Thus, it must be stated that rocket technology has significantly outstripped other areas of human development.

An impressive example of the influence of fundamental and applied science on the development and effective use of new technology and technical progress in the military-industrial complex is the creation of non-traditional weapons - vacuum (the air is burned out in a certain volume, and this volume "collapses", destroying all life in it) , laser (gasdynamic, magnetodynamic, etc. quantum generators, predicted in literary form by A.N. Tolstoy in the form of "engineer Garin's hyperboloid").

At the household level, examples of technical progress associated with the emergence of new technology are provided by radio electronics. The first versions of radios, televisions, computers used vacuum tubes - rather voluminous details. As a result, the products themselves occupied a fairly large volume. A fundamentally new advance was associated with the miniaturization of the main components, i.e. from transitions to transistors, electronic boards, in short, chips. As a result, restrictions on the use of computers within any other devices have practically disappeared - they can be built not only into a car or a washing machine, but also into mobile phone and wrist watch, a ballpoint pen and a button. The limitation is that a person uses a computer, which means that information from the computer must be available to his eyes, and entering information into the computer must be possible for his fingers. On the other hand, the achievements of radio electronics are very useful, for example, for special services, since they make it possible to greatly reduce the size of devices that collect and analyze information. For the majority of the population, the fundamental possibility of creating computers that allow, with the help of a small remote control, to control the entire household appliances in the apartment, provide communication, including international. Computer networks already allow many professionals to work from home rather than in the office.

1.3.4. Development of mathematical research methods

and information technology

On the history of technological progress in the field computer science let's stop in more detail. By the early 1940s, this was the situation. Engineers used mainly slide rules, tables and nomograms. Financial worker used adding machines and abacus. Primitive semi-automatic counting devices operated at machine counting stations, which made it possible to count the number of cards drawn by a set of spitz from the set. Information was encrypted with holes and solid cuts on the edges of the cards. All of the counting methods listed did not allow extensive calculations to be carried out quickly and accurately.

The first computers built in the late 1940s in the USSR and the USA were undoubtedly a fundamentally new step in computing technology, despite the fact that their computing power was much lower than modern personal computers. Until the 1980s, i.e. before the spread of personal computers, computers of various types looked about the same - large cabinets occupying an entire hall. Intermediaries - programmers - have always stood between persons wishing to solve problems on a computer (users) and a computer.

And suddenly everything changed. Instead of the hall, the computer settled on the table, the programmer disappeared as unnecessary (now he is called a consultant). How could this happen? This is the result of technological progress in radio electronics. The computer itself motherboard) is now very small. New technology (monitor and keyboard) is adapted to human needs. One can imagine further development, for example, when liquid crystal flat screens are used instead of a keyboard monitor. Then the computer can take the form of a thin folder. The only question is the economic feasibility of such a development at the present time.

Note that following the technological progress in the field of computer technology, the functions of the computer have also changed. If it was invented for carrying out scientific and technical calculations, then at present such activity is by no means dominant. Quite often, a personal computer is used as a means of entertainment, for computer games, for watching movies, reading texts. The second most common use is composing and editing texts. And only the third - calculations, and first of all - accounting. At present, the World Wide Web is of great importance, through which a variety of information is distributed, including through Email. Explosively developing electronic commerce via the Internet (sales doubling every two years).

An important place in fundamental and applied science, as well as in technical and technological research, is occupied by experiment. In the second half of the twentieth century. the mathematical theory of the experiment has acquired practical significance (see, for example, the monograph by the well-known propagandist of this scientific direction in our country, Prof. V.V. Nalimov). In particular, in the chemical and pharmaceutical industries, methods of extreme experiment planning allow increasing the yield of a useful product by 30–300%. Various versions of the mathematical experiment turned out to be very useful, i.e. experiment based on mathematical models of real phenomena and processes, including in standardization and product quality management. Modern information technologies for the collection and analysis of scientific and technical information are an integral component modern fundamental and applied science and engineering developments. It is impossible to be at the level of modern requirements for science-intensive products without active use information on the INTERNET. However, this must ensure effective protection of proprietary information. The only reliable way is not to connect computers with information about one's own developments to the Internet or other public networks, but to access these networks from specially dedicated computers.

It is generally recognized that a cardinal acceleration of scientific and technological progress can be achieved only through the intensive use of mathematical models and mathematical research methods. The development and use of various models in almost all areas of science and technology is a characteristic feature of the 20th century. . Emphasize the importance methodological research, which often determine the success or failure of the more concrete work that follows them. The stunning success of cybernetics in the postwar years was determined precisely by its fundamentally new methodological guidelines.

The field of computing has its own myths. One of them is "artificial intelligence". What is "artificial intelligence", in our opinion, no one can reasonably answer. All discussions on this topic, as it seems to us, are a way to get funding for computer development, which in itself is by no means a crime.

The crux of the matter is that it is not clear what "natural intelligence" is; human intellect. Only certain aspects of the human intellect have been more or less studied. For example, a person can count. From this narrow point of view, the calculator (with which housewives go to the market) has artificial intelligence, and much more powerful than human. But for some reason I don't want to call the calculator artificial intelligence.

The computer does only what is specified in the program. Of course, the program can use a pseudo-random number generator, but this does not make the computer independent and intelligent. Terms like "learning" in various algorithms denote quite specific calculations and usually have nothing to do with the real actions of specific people.

"Artificial intelligence" changes shape over time. In the 1970s, there was a lot of talk about "self-organization", in the 1980s - about "expert systems", in the 90s - about "neurocomputers". The standard set of actions in each of these cases is as follows: developing a "methodology", writing large plans, developing a theory, conducting lengthy calculations on computers, creating "first versions of systems", i.e. toys - and zilch. As a rule, it turned out that more and better can be done by classical methods. But the initiators of a new topic need money, they need to fool the heads of those who give money - and a new project is invented that requires more powerful computers and an increase in the staff of scientists.

They say that the ideas of "artificial intelligence" were brought to our country by M.V. Keldysh in the late 1960s. As president of the USSR Academy of Sciences, he went to the USA. There he was explained that he needed to deal with "artificial intelligence", but, say, statistics and econometrics was not necessary. And so he did. But in the United States, the organizers of science really did not have to specifically deal with statistics, since the American Statistical Association (more than 20 thousand members) has been actively working there for more than 150 years. And we still have problems in statistics, as they were, and a significant part of qualified specialists were diverted to fruitless projects of "artificial intelligence".

Computers did not have intelligence, they do not and will not, at least in the next 100 years. Science fiction writers have already understood this - how much they wrote about intelligent robots in the middle of the century and how quiet they are now.

Although modern computer systems themselves do not possess intelligence, they are able to enhance the intelligence of the researcher and analyst. In particular, the Internet contains a lot of useful information which is currently in active use. Note that this was possible due to the use of fundamental and applied scientific research in optics, which led to the creation of cable fiber optic information transmission systems. Fiber optic cables are the backbone of the Internet. They connect servers - those "nerve nodes" of the network with which Internet users communicate via ordinary telephone cables (via modems). Fiber optic cables provide error-free transmission of large amounts of information, which was not possible with previous communication systems.

Another example of technological progress is satellite communications. In addition to direct communication, receiving TV programs, etc., this system makes it possible to accurately determine its position on the Earth's surface. Directions about where to go can be transmitted via satellite. However, if the enemy has the ability to intercept signals, then using satellite communications is impractical.

Progress in the field of social sciences and the humanities gives rise to corresponding possibilities of influencing the enemy. For example, they often talk about information weapons. It is not only about using developments in the field of computer science, for example, about creating and introducing computer viruses, about protecting one's information and opening someone else's protection. Usually, information weapons are understood as the production and dissemination of information with the aim of manipulating consciousness, in order to force the enemy to take actions that harm him. A similar meaning is put into the term "psychological weapon", emphasizing in this term the emphasis on the achievements of psychology. Technological progress and new technology have significantly expanded the possibilities in this area. If during the Second World War the enemy could mainly use only leaflets, radio, rumors, now (satellite) television, video recorders, the Internet, etc. have been added.

The development of scientific and technological progress is influenced not only by the exact and natural sciences, but also by such as economics and management. The impact of the growth of the science of managing people (management) is obvious. It provides effective management technologies, develops optimal project management methods, including those based on the theory of active systems. When managing personnel, it is necessary to rely on the concept of the pyramid of needs and adequate ideas about the motivation of employees. In scientific and technical planning in modern Russian conditions, it is impossible not to take into account the dynamics of prices and their generalizing indicator - the inflation index. Etc.

Econometric and statistical methods are connected both with mathematical research methods and with economics and management. They are used in forecasting scientific and technological progress, especially non-numeric data statistics and expert judgment. Modern statistical methods are indispensable for solving various problems of standardization and product quality management. Based on them, simulation econometric models of various economic systems for the purpose of studying, forecasting and optimal control. In the twentieth century applied statistics has come a long way of development, demonstrating the great practical significance of its approaches, methods and results. We emphasize that the introduction of modern statistical methods is possible only on the basis of the intensive use of personal computers. However, computers are not limited to the necessary conditions successful application of modern econometric and statistical methods. Organizational conditions and trained personnel are needed. The work put forward a program for the development of this area of ​​support for scientific and technological progress. The program was based on the expected active work of the All-Union Statistical Association, established in 1990, and its member Section of Statistical Methods. However, due to well-known events in our country, this program was not implemented.

The current situation with econometric and statistical methods in our country is far from acceptable. The paper gives examples of state standards on statistical methods of product quality management, containing gross errors, which are unacceptable to use. Apparently, the reason for the appearance of errors is the low qualification of the developers. Promising areas of application of econometric and statistical methods are still quality management of products and services and, in particular, statistical control; planning of experiments; expert assessments, forecasting, including when working in situational rooms. Currently, one of the most promising applications of econometrics is in controlling.

We must also recall the economic weapon, with the help of which, for example, it is possible to put out of action this or that branch of industry that fulfills defense orders. It is clear that for this it is enough to break the technological chain, giving control over at least one link in this chain to an economic entity with foreign capital.

The theory and practice of industrial safety are closely related to ecology in general and environmental safety in particular. To solve the problems of ensuring industrial and environmental safety, the theory of risk analysis is used. In particular, a range of quantitative risk characteristics has been developed. This theory applies, in particular, the methods of econometrics and expert assessments. An analysis of various approaches to the use of expert judgment shows that successful applications of this branch of econometrics must be based on an appropriate Information Support in the form of a workstation or other software product.

A number of specialists see promising ecological weapons based on the impact on the natural environment of the country that is the enemy. A relatively new idea is that the impact is not aimed at the inhabitants of this country, but at its natural environment.

Let's return to the issue of automating the decision-making process. After World War II, N. Wiener's book "Cybernetics" was greeted with a bang, in which this issue was mentioned. True, as Academician of the Academy of Sciences of the USSR N.N. Moiseev later found out, all the main ideas of cybernetics were expressed by our compatriot A.A. Bogdanov twenty years earlier. But something else is important. It was after the Second World War that a powerful scientific and applied movement began, for which the terms "cybernetics", "system analysis", "game theory" are defining. As part of this movement, a scientific direction called "Operations Research" began to develop, in which approaches and methods for making decisions in difficult situations are being developed.

All of these scientific areas are highly mathematized. The traditional study scheme is as follows. A mathematical model of a phenomenon or process is built. Then the resulting mathematical object is studied by purely mathematical methods. Many specialists never go beyond the bounds of mathematics, not considering it necessary to connect the theorems they received with facts. real life. Others complete the triad, returning from mathematical heights to the ground of reality and interpreting mathematical results in terms of real problems.

We note the importance of mathematical modeling methods. Often an experiment with a mathematical model can replace a real experiment, which is either too expensive or impossible for one reason or another, for example, ethical. However, calculations based on mathematical models can be quite laborious, and the computing capabilities of standard personal computers may not be enough. To carry out mathematical modeling, sometimes (but not always) supercomputers are needed, for example, such as the machines of the Elbrus series developed at the Institute of Applied Mathematics of the Russian Academy of Sciences.

Above we have considered various examples of how technical progress has been promoted as a result of the development of fundamental and applied science. However, it is very important that all these advances do not occur independently of each other. They work together, they reinforce each other. This is very clearly seen in the example of computer science. Here are the achievements of radio electronics, which made it possible to create a modern personal computer. And optics, thanks to which we have the fiber optic basis of the Internet. And cybernetics with operations research, which created the mathematical basis for decision support systems. And the theory of mathematical modeling, which allows a real experiment to be replaced by a computer one. It was the synthesis of all these very different areas of fundamental and applied scientific research that made it possible to obtain such a powerful tool for the development of new technology and technical progress as a modern personal computer.

Note the active development in the second half of the twentieth century. self-consciousness of science, i.e. research on the development of science and scientific and technological progress by scientific methods. In this range of works there is also a simple description of the type of reference books. And the study of statistical methods, which in this context are called scientometric. And the fundamental science of science, using more or less abstract models such as economic and mathematical ones, and the socio-psychological analysis of the problems of scientific teams and individual scientists, and the applied science of science, which provides a mathematical apparatus for planning scientific and technical research. There are also reflections on science in general and its dynamics in Russia in recent years.

At the present stage, the creation of modern technical systems is carried out on the basis of computers. Training technical requirements, development of a preliminary design, technical and economic analysis of product characteristics, mathematical modeling of the process of its use, production of design and technological documentation, development of instructions for users, etc. - all this in accordance with modern requirements must be carried out on the basis of computer technology.

Thus, the synthesis of various areas of fundamental and applied scientific research is the main component of scientific and technological progress, which makes it possible to create modern technical systems with the help of advanced technologies.

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test questions

1. Give examples of managerial decisions that have greatly influenced the development of a particular country.

2. Why did the growth in the number of scientists accelerate sharply after the Second World War?

3. What is the role of computer technology and information technology in modern scientific and technological progress?

4. Tell us about the development and role of the scientific direction known as "cybernetics".

5. Analyze the dynamics of the development of science in the USSR and Russia.

Topics of reports and abstracts

1. The role of personality in economic history.

2. The role of mathematical research methods in scientific and technological progress.

3. Mathematical methods of experiment planning - effective tool researcher.

4. Organizational-economic and socio-psychological mechanisms of self-inhibition of the development of science.

5. Methods and possibilities of scientometrics as a tool for managing scientific and technological progress.

6. Decision-making methods to improve economic efficiency management of scientific and technological progress.

Previous

As you know, organizations are complex objects, and those, in turn, are parts of an even more complex integrity. Since organized actions are inherently complex, and management decisions are made by people and influence them, a number of various factors must be taken into account when making decisions, both from the external changing environment and from the organization itself. We can list a number of factors that, to one degree or another, influencing behavior individual representatives in the organization, which undoubtedly plays almost the main role in the process of making managerial decisions. I preferred to include such factors as personal assessments of the leader, and the level of risk, and the time of decision-making, and the changing environment, and informational and behavioral restrictions, and, finally, the negative consequences and interdependence of decisions.

Personal assessments of the leader. As a rule, the personal characteristics and assessments of the leader contain a subjective ranking of importance, quality or good. In relation to decision making, assessments act as a compass, pointing the person in the desired direction when having to choose between alternatives of action.

All management decisions, not just related issues social responsibility and ethics, built on the foundation of someone's value system. Each person has his own value system, which determines the actions and influences the decisions made.

Research confirms that value orientations affect the way decisions are made. Cultural differences are important.

In addition to differences in personal assessments, a typical difficulty in determining the optimal alternatives is the environment in which decisions are made.

Decision making environment. When making management decisions, it is always important to consider risk. Risk in this case refers to the level of certainty with which an outcome can be predicted. In the course of evaluating alternatives and making decisions, the manager must predict possible outcomes in different circumstances or states of nature. These circumstances are classified as conditions of certainty, risk or uncertainty.

Certainty. The decision is made under conditions of certainty, when the leader knows exactly the result of each of the alternative options choice. For example, a manager can, at least in the short term, determine exactly what the costs of producing a particular product will be, since rent, materials and labor costs are known or can be calculated with high accuracy.

Under conditions of certainty, relatively few organizational or personal decisions are made.

Risk. Decisions made under risk are those whose outcomes are not certain, but the probability of each outcome is known. Probability is defined as the degree of possibility of a given event and varies from 0 to 1. The sum of the probabilities of all alternatives must be equal to one. Under certainty, there is only one alternative. The most desirable way of determining probability is objectivity. Probability is objective when it can be determined by mathematical methods or by statistical analysis accumulated experience.

Management is required to consider the level of risk as the most important factor. There are several ways in which an organization can obtain relevant information to enable it to objectively calculate risk. When external information is not available, the organization can obtain it in-house through research. Market analysis is so widely used to predict the perception of new products, television shows, movies, and politics that it has become an important field in its own right, as well as an integral part of almost all large organizations dealing with the general public.

The probability will be determined objectively if enough information is available for the prediction to be statistically reliable. In many cases, the organization does not have sufficient information to make an objective estimate of the likelihood, however, management's experience suggests what is most likely to happen with high certainty. In such a situation, the leader can use judgment about the possibility of accomplishing alternatives with one or another subjective or implied probability.

Uncertainty. The decision is made under conditions of uncertainty, when it is impossible to estimate the likelihood of potential outcomes. This should be the case when the factors to be considered are so new and complex that it is not possible to obtain sufficient relevant information about them. As a result, the likelihood of a particular outcome cannot be predicted with sufficient certainty. Uncertainty is characteristic of some decisions that have to be made in rapidly changing circumstances. The socio-cultural, political and knowledge-intensive environment has the highest potential for uncertainty.

In practice, very few management decisions have to be made under conditions of complete uncertainty. When faced with uncertainty, a manager can use two main options.

First, try to get additional relevant information and analyze the problem again. This often reduces the novelty and complexity of the problem. The leader combines this additional information and analysis with accumulated experience, judgment, or intuition to give a set of outcomes a subjective or implied credibility.

Second, act exactly on past experience, judgment, or intuition, and make an assumption about the likelihood of events. This is necessary when there is not enough time to collect additional information or the cost is too high. Temporary and informational constraints are of paramount importance in making managerial decisions.

Time and changing environment. The passage of time usually causes changes in the situation. Therefore, decisions should be made and implemented as long as the information and assumptions on which decisions are based remain relevant and accurate. Time considerations sometimes force managers to rely on judgment or even intuition when, under normal circumstances, they would prefer rational analysis. You should also take into account the likelihood of a decision ahead of its time.

Conflict. Similar situations are considered in game theory. Of course, in practice this situation occurs quite often. In such cases, they try to minimize it, or use non-formalized methods to make a decision. Estimates obtained as a result of applying formalized methods are only the basis for making a final decision; in this case, additional criteria, including those of an informal nature, may be taken into account. Making an important decision in the context of conflicting parties is different from other situations, as it concerns the entire organization as a whole. Sometimes it is very difficult for a manager to resolve a conflict in favor of one of the parties. In such cases, for the most optimal resolution of the conflict, a compromise can be used that would please both parties, but on the terms of mutual concessions.

information restrictions. Perhaps the most important thing for a manager in the process of effective management decision-making is the possession of reliable and high-quality information. Information is needed to rationally and expediently solve problems. But sometimes the information needed to make a worthwhile decision is not available or is too expensive. The cost of information should include the time of managers and subordinates spent on collecting it, as well as actual costs, for example, those associated with market analysis, payment for machine time, using the services of external consultants, etc. Therefore, the manager must decide whether the benefit from additional information is significant, how important the decision itself is, whether it involves a significant share of the organization's resources or a small amount of money. It can be argued that due to the decent security of the manager-leader information resources, and organizations - financial and personnel, a synergistic effect is achieved when making a rational management decision. Now, let's consider the possible alternatives that the manager may face when evaluating the costs and benefits of additional information.