Models and methods of decision making. Methods of analysis and problem solving

One of the most powerful tools in the hands of a manager is information. Efficient Management impossible without collecting information and processing it various methods for the preparation and adoption management decisions. Methods for obtaining information are diverse and are not the subject of consideration in this paper. Methods for processing and analyzing economic information are the essence of econometrics. For the targeted distribution of information to recipients, an integrated Information system, aimed at solving the problems facing the enterprise, and is a reflection of ongoing business processes.

A modern manager must have outstanding analytical skills that would allow him to adequately evaluate current and specially collected information regarding the entire gamut of external and internal factors. This is necessary in order to set realistic goals, develop, adopt and implement appropriate management decisions. It is important to constantly monitor the implementation of the decisions made, adjust the goals in time and, as a result, adjust the means to achieve them.

In other words, strategic management is the foundation of an overall approach to managing the entire company. An executive director of one company is said to have aptly articulated an important message: “Basically, our competitors know the same fundamental concepts, methods and approaches that we do, and they are also well placed to follow them scrupulously, as we are. Often the difference their and our success lies in the relative care and discipline with which they and we develop and execute our strategies for the future."

The benefits of a strategic approach to management (as opposed to free improvisation, intuition or inaction) based on intensive use information systems are:

ensuring that the organization's message is focused on the key question of the strategy "what are we going to do and what are we going to achieve?"
the need for managers to be more responsive to emerging change, new opportunities and threatening trends;
opportunity for managers to assess alternative options capital investments and staff expansion, i.e. wisely transfer resources to strategically sound and high-impact projects;
the ability to combine the decisions of managers at all levels of management related to the strategy.

So, the following conclusion can be drawn: strategic management is a modern version systems approach to the management of an industrial enterprise or other organization.

The essence of controlling

In the literature, you can find dozens of definitions of the concept of "controlling". However, almost all definitions emphasize that controlling is a new management concept generated by the practice modern management. Controlling (from the English control - leadership, regulation, management, control) is far from being limited to control. At the heart of this new concept system management organization is striving to ensure the successful functioning of the organizational system (enterprise, trading company, bank, etc.) in the long term by:

adaptation of strategic and operational (tactical) goals to changing conditions external environment;
harmonization operational plans with a strategic plan for the development of the organizational system;
coordination and integration of operational plans for different business processes;
creating a system for developing management decisions and providing managers with information for various levels of management at optimal time intervals;
creating a system of control over the execution of plans, adjusting their content and timing of implementation;
adaptation organizational structure enterprise management in order to increase its flexibility and ability to quickly respond to changing environmental requirements.

One of the main reasons for the emergence and implementation modern principles development and adoption of management decisions based on the concept of controlling has become a need for system integration of various aspects of business process management in the organizational system. Controlling provides a methodological and instrumental base to support the basic management functions: planning, control, accounting and analysis, as well as assessment of the situation for making managerial decisions.

It should be emphasized that controlling is not a system that automatically ensures the success of an enterprise, freeing managers from management functions. It is only a management tool, but a very effective tool.

The key components of the controlling concept are:

focus on efficient work organizations in a relatively long term based on the philosophy of profitability and the formation of an organizational structure focused on achieving strategic and tactical goals;
creation of an information system adequate to the tasks of effective management;
dividing the tasks of controlling into cycles, which ensures iterative (cyclical) planning, control over execution and making corrective decisions.

Functions and tasks of controlling. Controlling as a concept of a management system served as a response to changes in the external conditions for the functioning of organizations (enterprises). By the beginning of the 21st century, the organization's management functions have evolved. Planning for individual aspects has been transformed into integrated program-target planning, marketing and sales management - into marketing, accounting and production accounting - into a control and regulation system. In general, the observed evolution of the organization's management functions with their integration into the controlling system reflects the main trend of an integrated (systematic) approach to management.

Controlling is focused primarily on supporting processes decision making. It must ensure that the traditional system of planning, accounting and control in the enterprise is adapted to information needs. officials decision makers, i.e. the functions of controlling include the creation, processing, verification and presentation of system management information. Controlling also supports and coordinates planning, information provision, control and adaptation processes.

The goals of controlling, as a direction of activity, directly follow from the goals of the organization and can be expressed in economic terms, for example, in increasing sales and expanding market share, in achieving a certain level of profit, profitability or productivity of the organization with a given level of liquidity.

Controlling functions are determined by the goals set for the organization and include those types management activities that ensure the achievement of these goals. These include: accounting, support for the planning process and decision making, control over the implementation of plans, assessment of ongoing processes, identification of deviations, their causes and development of recommendations for management to eliminate the causes that caused these deviations.

In the field of accounting, the tasks of controlling include the creation of a system for collecting and processing information that is essential for making management decisions on different levels guides. This is necessary for the development and further maintenance of the system for maintaining internal records of information on the flow of technological processes. Important are the selection or development of accounting methods, as well as criteria for evaluating the activities of the enterprise as a whole and its individual divisions.

Support for the planning process consists in particular of the following Controlling tasks:

formation and development of an integrated planning system;
development of planning methods;
determination of the information necessary for planning, sources of information and ways to obtain it.

The controlling system informationally supports the development of basic plans of the enterprise (sales, liquidity, investments, etc.), coordinates individual plans in terms of time and content, checks the plans for completeness and feasibility, and allows you to draw up a single operational (annual) plan of the enterprise based on effective processes decision making. As part of the controlling system, it is determined how and when to plan, and the possibility of implementing the planned actions is also assessed.

The Controlling Service does not determine what to plan, but advises how and when to plan, and evaluates the possibility of implementing the planned activities. Responsibility for the implementation of plans remains in the competence of line managers, managers of the relevant management units.

When providing analytical information to the management of the organization, the tasks of controlling include, in particular:

standardization of information channels and media;
choice of information processing methods.

The controlling system should ensure the collection, processing and provision of management with information essential for making managerial decisions.

In each individual case, the functions of the controlling service depend on many circumstances, but if we generalize the existing practice of enterprises, we can get some ideal list of the main functions and tasks of controlling, presented below.

We divide the main functions and tasks of controlling into the following groups: accounting, planning, control and regulation, information and analytical support, additionally - special functions. Let us describe the composition of each of these groups.

collection and processing of information;
development and maintenance of an internal accounting system;
unification of methods and criteria for evaluating the activities of the organization and its divisions.

Planning:

information support in the development of basic plans (sales, production, investments, purchases);
formation and improvement of the entire "architecture" of the planning system;
establishing the need for information and time for the individual steps of the planning process;
coordination of the information exchange process;
coordination and aggregation of individual plans in terms of time and content;
verification of proposed plans for completeness and feasibility;
drawing up a master plan of the enterprise.

Control and regulation :

determination of quantities controlled in time and content sections;
comparison of planned and actual values to measure and evaluate the degree of achievement of the goal;
determination of permissible limits of deviations of values;
analysis of deviations, interpretation of the reasons for deviations of the plan from the fact and development of proposals to reduce deviations or correct the plan.

Information and analytical support:

development of information system architecture;
standardization of information carriers and channels;
provision of digital materials that would allow the control and management of the organization;
collection and systematization of the most significant data for decision-making;
development, study and implementation of econometric, economic-mathematical and other tools for planning, control and decision-making;
advice on the selection of corrective measures and solutions;
ensuring the efficiency of the functioning of the information system.

Special Features:

collection and analysis of data on the external environment: the state of financial markets, industry conditions, government economic programs, etc.;
comparison with competitors;
justification of the expediency of establishing contacts (up to a merger) with other firms or opening (closing) branches;
carrying out calculations and other calculations for special orders;
efficiency calculations investment projects, and etc.

Based on the above list of functions and tasks of controlling, one can quite clearly imagine the scope of its application. The scope of controlling functions implemented in organizations depends mainly on the following factors:

economic condition of the organization;
understanding by the management and / or owners of the organization of the importance and usefulness of introducing controlling functions;
the size of the organization (number of employees, production volume);
the level of diversification of production, the range of products;
the current level of competitiveness in the industry;
qualifications of managerial personnel;
qualifications of employees of the controlling service.

In large organizations, it is advisable to create a specialized controlling service. Small organizations do not always have such a service in their structure. In small enterprises, the main functions of controlling are performed either by the head of the company or his deputy. At the same time, many tasks are integrated and simplified. For example, the tasks of developing plans, coordinating them and checking for feasibility can be considered as a single task if it is performed by the head of the enterprise himself. At a medium-sized enterprise with mono-production, the volume of functions and tasks of accounting, planning and reporting will, of course, be smaller compared to a diversified enterprise.

In the face of deteriorating economic situation in an enterprise, which manifests itself in a decrease in the level of liquidity and profitability, controlling services are expected to a greater extent to provide services for coordinating plans, analyzing the reasons for the deviation of plans from the fact, as well as recommendations for ensuring survival in the short term.

Federal Agency for Education

federal educational state-financed organization

higher vocational education

UGORSK STATE UNIVERSITY

Faculty of Law

Department of "Management"

COURSE WORK

for the development of management decisions

on the topic " Methods for obtaining and processing information about the situation of making a managerial decision.

Completed: student of group 7251 Sidorovich V.V.

Checked: senior teacher Gorbunova S.V.

Khanty-Mansiysk, 2009

INTRODUCTION.............................................................................................................3

Chapter 1. The meaning and essence of information for the process of making a managerial decision .............................................. ...............................................6

1.1. Definition of information .................................................................. .........................6

1.2. Types of information and how to obtain it .............................................................. 7

Chapter 2 The main methods of obtaining and processing information about the situation of making a managerial decision .............................................. .............................10

2.1. Sources of information ............................................................... ........10

2.2. Usefulness of information .................................................................. ..........................12

2.3. Information restrictions .................................................................. ...............13

2.4. Receipt and processing of information ............................................... .......fourteen

Chapter 3 Analysis of methods for obtaining and processing information for making a managerial decision (on the example of the faculty of full-time education of the university) ................................................. .......................23

3.1. Analysis of the object of study ............................................................... ...................23

3.2. Analysis of methods for obtaining and processing information...............................24

CONCLUSION...................................................................................................28

LIST OF USED SOURCES......................................30

INTRODUCTION

Under control production system Situations constantly arise when leaders of various levels (from a master to a minister) are faced with the need to choose one of several possible options for action. The development and adoption of a decision is a key procedure in the activities of a manager, which determines the entire further course of the management process, in particular the final result of management activities.

The decision refers to the number of creative operations in the technology of managerial work. On the one hand, in terms of content, this is a logical and cogitative activity performed mainly by management personnel. On the other hand, the decision is an emotional-psychological act. Like no other kind managerial work, the decision is due to the psycho-physiological personality traits of the leader. Finally, the decision acts as a management procedure, therefore, it must be carefully organized, regulated with the help of legal regulations. In order for these conditions to be implemented, it is necessary to take seriously the process of collecting and processing information in order to make an effective management decision.

IN modern conditions world socio-economic development, a particularly important area has become Information Support management process, which consists in the collection and processing of information necessary for making informed management decisions. This fact suggests that the topic of this work is quite relevant in our time and requires careful consideration.

The governing body is usually tasked with obtaining information, processing it, as well as generating and transmitting new derivative information in the form of control actions. Such impacts are carried out in operational and strategic aspects and are based on previously obtained data, the reliability and completeness of which largely determines the successful solution of many management problems. It should be noted that any decisions made require the processing of large amounts of information; The competence of a leader depends not so much on past experience, but on having enough information about a rapidly changing situation and the ability to use it. It is necessary to know and understand future leaders. Not only the fate of a particular person or enterprise depends on this, but, perhaps, the fate of Russia as a whole, its role in the international arena. "Information potential" plays a very important role, because today dictate an urgent need to feel confident on your feet in a society where the importance of information for all areas public life is constantly increasing.

The correctness and effectiveness of the decision made is largely determined by the quality of economic, organizational, social and other types of information. Conventionally, all types of information that are used in making a decision can be divided into:

For incoming and outgoing;

processed and unprocessed;

Text and graphics;

constant and variable;

Normative, analytical, statistical;

primary and secondary;

Directive, distributive, reporting.

The value of the information obtained depends on the accuracy of the task, since a correctly set task predetermines the need for specific information for making a decision.

This term paper is to disclose the main methods for obtaining and processing information about the situation when making managerial decisions, and also to consider how these methods are used in practice.

To achieve this goal, it is necessary to solve the following tasks:

one). Identification of the meaning and essence of information;

2). Consideration of the main types of information and ways to obtain it;

4). Identification of sources of information and consideration of the main information restrictions;

five). Determination of methods for obtaining and processing information about the situation of making a managerial decision;

6). Analysis of the specific application of these methods in practice.

The subject of the study is the main methods used to obtain and process information about the situation of making a managerial decision.

The object of the study is the faculty of full-time education of the university.

Theoretical and methodological foundations of the study were carried out on the basis of the following literature sources: Afanasyev S.V., Yaroshenko V.N., Smirnov E.A., Vorobyov S.N. Litvak B.G. etc.

Chapter 1. The meaning and essence of information for the process of making managerial decisions.

1.1. Definition of information

“Information” (from the Latin informatio - explanation, presentation), originally - information transmitted by people orally, in writing or in another way (using conditional signals, technical means, etc.); since the middle of the 20th century, a general scientific concept, including the exchange of information between people, a person and an automaton, an automaton and an automaton ... ".

The most remarkable property of information is the ability to cause change. When people learn something new, they begin to live differently, their needs for information services. An indispensable condition for surviving in the market and remaining competitive is to adapt to changing needs. In practice, the value of information is directly proportional to the role it plays in decision making and what is at stake in that decision. The value of information is determined by how you use it. On its own, it's worth a little.

Information designed to support decision making makes a significant contribution to the decision. It becomes a factor of production and, like labour, materials and capital, creates wealth. In this function, information is an element of competitiveness, equal in value to the skill of management.

Information consists of all objective facts and all assumptions that affect the decision maker's perception of the nature and extent of the uncertainties associated with a given problem or opportunity. Anything that has the potential to reduce the degree of uncertainty, be it facts, estimates, forecasts, generalized relationships or rumors, should be considered information.

1.2. Types of information and how to obtain it

There is a variety of types of information used by managers: facts, estimates, forecasts, generalized connections, rumors.

Fact - an event or condition that is observed directly (the simplest kind of information).

Estimates - differ from facts in that they are based more on inference and (or) statistical techniques than on direct observation and calculation. Such an assessment may differ from the actual fact in two ways. Since it is based on a sample, it is affected by sampling error; moreover, it is also affected by measurement error, since it is not based on direct observation. The consequences of both errors can be minimized: the first by increasing the sample size, the second by using more accurate measurement methods.

Estimates are related to the past and present, while forecasts are related to the future. They are partly based on extrapolation of trends, partly on analogy, and partly on common sense.

In practice, generalized relationships are often used as the basis for evaluation and forecasting. For example, they are set between sales volume and factors such as national income, consumer confidence, corporate capital spending plan, and so on.

Rumor differs from fact only in that the source of information is less reliable. But hearing may be the only available source certain types information, such as competitor plans. Thus, rumors occupy a certain place in the information system of any company.

Introduction
Decision making and information
Content and stages of the decision-making process
Information support for management
Content and requirements for information

Informatization in business
Information in business
Business Information Resources
Quantity and quality of information
Database
Expert systems

The role of management decisions
Information support of management activities
Conclusion
List of used literature:

Introduction

At present, industrial labor is increasingly being replaced by clerical and office labor. In the United States in 1920, 15% of employees worked in offices, in 1980 - 50%, and in 1990 already over 60%. And all office workers depend on the information product as source material and the results of their activities. Social surveys show that employees and managers express dissatisfaction with their poor performance due to high proportion routines in their working hours. Indeed, about half of it goes to auxiliary activities - waiting for business meetings, talking on the phone, etc., about a quarter - to work with documents, and only an insignificant part - less than 10% - to analyze and plan further activities. Many workers, having tried all the managerial techniques known to them for the optimal distribution of working time, have not been successful. The reason for this lies not in the order in which working time is used, but in the imperfection and inaccuracy of traditional means of processing and transmitting information. And only modern people can help here. Information Technology.

Information is required to make any decision, and the more complex the decision, the greater the volume. necessary information. In addition, the information must meet certain requirements. Be complete, accurate and timely.

Problem formulation. Based on the foregoing, the problem can be formulated as follows: the need to provide (support) decision-making with information that is properly selected, summarized, systematized and analyzed, that is, suitable for making the right and informed decision in each specific situation. Another problem is the timeliness of information.

In this regard, we can set the following goal of this course work: to determine the most effective ways to collect, systematize and analyze the information necessary for making managerial decisions. As well as finding the opportunity to quickly obtain necessary information decision maker.

One of the objectives of this work is the detailed development of specific methods for solving the set goal. Finding out the advantages and disadvantages existing methods solving similar problems and finding possible ways to improve them.

Decision making and information

Content and stages of the decision-making process

Management decisions is the result of a specific managerial activity. Decision making is the basis of management. Development and decision-making is a creative process in the activities of a leader at any level, including:

development and goal setting;
study of the problem based on the information received;
selection and justification of criteria for efficiency (effectiveness) and possible consequences of the decision;
discussion with specialists of various options for solving the problem (task);
selection and formulation of the optimal solution;
making decisions;
Concretization of the decision for its executors.

Management technology considers the adoption of managerial decisions as a process consisting of three stages: decision preparation, decision making, decision implementation.

At the stage of preparation of management decisions, economic analysis situations at the micro- and macro level, including the search, collection and processing of information, as well as the identification and formulation of problems that need to be addressed.

At the stage of decision-making, the development and evaluation of alternative solutions and courses of action, carried out on the basis of multivariate calculations; selection of criteria for choosing the optimal solution; choosing and making the best decision.

At the stage of implementation of the decision, measures are taken to specify the decision and bring it to the executors, control over the progress of its implementation is carried out; the necessary adjustments are made and an assessment of the result obtained from the implementation of the decision is given. Each management decision has its own specific result, so the goal of management activity is to find such forms, methods, means and tools that could help achieve the optimal result in specific conditions and circumstances.

Management decisions can be justified, made on the basis of economic analysis and multivariate calculation, and intuitive, which, although they save time, contain the possibility of errors and uncertainty.

Decisions made should be based on reliable, current and predictable information, analysis of all factors influencing the decision, taking into account the foreseeing of its possible consequences.

Managers are required to constantly and comprehensively study incoming information in order to prepare and make management decisions based on it, which must be coordinated at all levels of the intra-company hierarchical management pyramid.

The amount of information that needs to be processed to develop effective management decisions is so great that it has long exceeded human capabilities. It is the difficulties of managing modern large-scale production that have led to the widespread use of electronic computers, the development of automated control systems, which required the creation of a new mathematical apparatus and economic and mathematical methods.

Information support for management

Content and requirements for information

Information(from Latin Informatio - clarification, presentation) - alienated knowledge expressed in a certain language in the form of alphabetic characters, recorded on a tangible medium, available for reproduction without the participation of the author and transferred to public communication channels (published).

In modern conditions, information support has become an important area, which consists in the collection and processing of information necessary for making informed management decisions. Transfer of information about the position and activities of the company to highest level management and mutual exchange of information between all interconnected divisions of the company is carried out on the basis of modern electronic computers and other technical means of communication.

In the activities of large firms, especially those with many branches in far-flung places, the transfer of information is an indispensable and paramount factor in the normal functioning of the firm. At the same time, ensuring the efficiency and reliability of information is of particular importance. For many firms, the in-house information system solves the problems of the organization technological process and is industrial. Here, information plays an important role in providing information for making managerial decisions and is one of the factors that reduce production costs and increase its efficiency. Forecasting market processes plays a special role. Of great importance is information about the occurrence in the course of production of deviations from the planned indicators required by the adopted operational decisions.

Information serves as the basis for the preparation of relevant reports, reports, proposals for the development and adoption of management decisions.

brevity, clarity of wording, timeliness of receipt;
meeting the needs of specific managers;
accuracy and reliability, the correct selection of primary information, the optimal systematization and the continuity of the collection and processing of information.

To adequately represent the situation, as a rule, not only quantitative data are used, but also qualitative data. This is achieved with the help of expert technologies widely used in decision-making processes.

The information received about the decision-making situation must be reliable and sufficiently complete. Invalid or insufficient full information can lead to erroneous and inefficient decisions. However, no less difficulties arise in the presence of redundant information, since the problem arises of selecting information that is really of interest and important for the timely adoption of an effective managerial decision.

When obtaining and processing information about the situation, decision-making is advisable to prepare analytical material that reflects the main features and trends in the development of the situation. Naturally, such analytical material should be prepared by specialists with sufficient knowledge and experience in the field to which the decision-making situation belongs.

Types of information technology

When organizing the collection and registration of data on the principle of sequential decisions, different kinds information technology:

collection and recording of data directly in the production process (at cost centers) in the form sole document and use of the central computer for data aggregation; data processing in the dialogue mode for calculating indicators on the terminal;
obtaining a free document, using a machine-readable information carrier (for example, floppy disks), processing data on the production department on personal computers.

Solving the issues of introducing new technologies requires an integrated, versatile approach. It is important not only to investigate the technical, economic and organizational aspects of the problem, but also to take into account the impact of the introduction of new technologies on the position of the worker in the production process. In particular, an analysis of the employee's labor functions, his mode of action, skills, abilities, and working conditions is required. It is very difficult to assess labor and socio-economic factors.

The technology of information activity involves: the creation of a system of records (digital and textual information) using means computer technology; use of forms as information carriers; database formation; creation of application packages.

Informatization in business

Informatization- saturation of production and all spheres of life and activity with ever-increasing flows of information. Term informatization formed as a combination of the concepts of "information" and "automation".

Information in business
Business Information Resources

The transition of society in the post-industrial era and science-intensive technologies introduces information resources into active circulation and further increases the requirements for the qualification of specialists. But it is information that makes it possible to rationally manage all other types of resources. Intensive use of information can significantly reduce the material and energy consumption of products. The main problem of any economy is to overcome the limited resources. But the available resources can be used different ways. The key here is deciding where and how to focus economic resources. Concentration of resources at the right time right place, to solve the main, priority direction - this is where information helps in making an economic decision.

Information is the basis of an entrepreneur's maneuver with matter and energy. It allows you to get a decision on how to organize the production of goods or services more efficiently and cost-effectively. Knowledge and information become strategic resources, since, along with empirical knowledge and everyday experience, systematized theoretical knowledge is directly involved in economic activity. It becomes a direct productive force, the same as, for example, the knowledge embedded in the control programs of robots and flexible production systems.

To achieve economic goals, an entrepreneur needs support in the form of information about professional knowledge, features of the chosen business area. The required information is dispersed across multiple sources and storage locations. The goal of applied informatics is to collect, thematically combine and process information in such a way as to speed up access to information and present it in a form convenient for interpretation by a human user. Moreover, today in computer science there are no restrictions on the type of information collected and the type of information media used. Informatics tools allow you to integrate a variety of information in "one place" and create a comprehensive field information resources. And this, in turn, removes uncertainty and increases the likelihood of obtaining the desired knowledge. The enterprise (at least its head office) can be seen as an efficient information center. It converges such flows of information.

External business environment (or macrosphere) - a set of economic and political entities operating outside the enterprise, and the relationship that develops between them and the enterprise, its real and potential customers, as well as competitors. According to experts, the greatest opportunities for the enterprise are provided by the qualification of personnel and the technological base, and the greatest danger lies in unexpected actions on the part of competitors of foreign firms.

The internal business environment is the relationship in the team that determines the saturation of information flows and the intensity of communication flows, as well as the knowledge laid down and generated in production.

An entrepreneur, according to modern estimates, plays three informational roles in his activities:

information receiver;
disseminator of information;
professional representative to the outside world.

How the entrepreneur plays his informational roles, organizing professional information flows, to a large extent depends on the productivity of the enterprise. But the performance of an enterprise is determined not only by the amount of information, but also by the quality, which the entrepreneur must correctly understand and evaluate.

Information is one of the main resources for increasing the productivity of an enterprise, since it is it that allows you to:

establish strategic goals and objectives of the enterprise and use the opportunities that open up;
make reasonable and timely management decisions;
coordinate the actions of disparate units, directing their efforts to achieve common goals.
Therefore, any enterprise organizes and systematically conducts work in the following main areas:
identification of problems and definition of information needs;
selection of sources of information;
collection of information;
information processing and assessment of its completeness and significance;
analysis of information and identification of trends in selected areas;
development of forecasts and alternatives for the behavior of the enterprise;
assessment of alternatives for various actions, choice of strategy and making management decisions for the implementation of strategic plans.

Information enrichment modern business is its most characteristic feature. The winner is the one who more effectively collects, processes and uses information about the opportunities that open up.

Quantity and quality of information

In the economy, three main information flows arise, spread and develop:

information that exists in the form of embodied knowledge in science-intensive products;
information reflecting human professional knowledge, partially fixed in the form of inventions, patents, licenses, but mainly in the form of production skills and techniques .;
information on the art, methods and technology of practical solutions to the problems of modern production management, on the issues of conquering sales markets in the production of even high-quality products.

All these flows of information are contained as a result of the intellectual component of the work of the most qualified and creative part of the workers. A feature and the most important feature of modernity is that everyone contributes to the information component. professional groups workers - from workers to managers of higher ranks. A break in any link in the chain of production relations between producers leads to a loss of information and, as a result, to a deterioration in product quality.

Philosophers define knowledge as a practice-tested experience of knowing the world around us, a reflection of reality in human thinking. Knowledge is what belongs to a person.

"Information, by N. Wiener's definition, is a designation of the content received from the outside world in the process of our adaptation to it and the adaptation of our feelings to it. The process of obtaining and using information is the process of our adaptation to the randomness of the external environment and our life activity in this environment ".

Information is knowledge for others, alienated from their original living carrier (generator) and become messages (more or less processed). These include knowledge concentrated in articles, books, patent descriptions, oral communications, management documents, project documentation, models, algorithms, programs, etc. Almost every entrepreneur has his own style of management, so knowledge that functions well in one place may be unusable in another. The same applies to the phenomenon of internationalization of knowledge: only general scientific knowledge is international.

Based on the synthesis of many approaches, the following definition of the term "information" can be given, taking into account, among other things, its modern legal sound: information is alienated knowledge recorded in a certain language in the form of signs on a material carrier, available for reproduction without the participation of the author and transferred to channels of public communication.

The amount of information. From the ordinary point of view, the amount of information has little to do with the length of the speech or the volume of the text. An informational message is received and interpreted depending on the context. However, the number of characters of the alphabet or the number of pages of text is accepted as a standard for the amount of information, for example, in printing.

In technical information systems, each new signal requires resources for its display. Therefore, the length of messages is a measure of the amount of information, in order to measure the information signal, this standard should be chosen. It is justified by the desire to reduce the entire alphabet of the technical language to two characters: dot, dash; closed, open; Red Green; Not really; "1" and "0". To encode letters, numbers, and other characters, you need sequences of "1" and "0", called binary numbers. As a standard of information in technical systems, eight-bit binary numbers, called bytes, are used. And a simple rule for measuring the amount of information is introduced - the number of bytes to represent a text is equal to the number of characters in the natural language of this text.

One unit of information - a byte - consists of eight binary units, otherwise called bits. Therefore, practically in technical information systems, two equal standards of the amount of information are used - bits and bytes.

Information quality. This indicator is important, but ambiguous. The same information has different meanings (value) for the same person, but in different time or for several people. In general, information does not retain its value over time, as a rule, although there is knowledge, as it were, of constant significance (for example, the fundamental laws of nature, birthdays ...).

Three approaches (criteria) to assessing the quality of information have been adopted: to reduce the state of uncertainty, to achieve the goal, and to increase the thesaurus.

Statistical information theory assumes that information is taken as a measure of uncertainty reduction after receiving a message. Therefore, receiving a message is equivalent to receiving additional knowledge that changes the previously created picture. It is obvious that the less probable the a priori information about the essence of the received message, the greater the changes it will cause. It is important to note here that transmitted information– the message must be transmitted in a code that is understood by the receiving party. Knowing the code will allow you to correctly receive and interpret information even with some distortion of information in the communication channel.

For systems with a clear goal, the value of information can be expressed in terms of an increment in the probability of achieving the goal. The pragmatic value of information in economic systems is extremely high: to increase productivity economic system k times, it is necessary to expand the bandwidth of the channels and the volume of created, transmitted and processed messages by approximately k + k times.

Communication is a form of knowledge transfer - an ordered reflection of objects and processes in concepts, judgments and images of concepts. In order to perceive and assimilate a message, it is necessary to have a certain amount of knowledge, which is presented to the system in the form of a thesaurus - a systematized dictionary of concepts indicating the semantic relationships between them. The received message is compared with the thesaurus, after which:

a) If there is a complete mismatch, it is not understood;

b) With a complete match - nothing is added to it and is not considered as informative;

c) In case of partial match - enriches the thesaurus by adding new concepts and relationships.

Therefore, the value of information is understood as a measure of expansion, development of the thesaurus by the perceived party when receiving and interpreting the message.

Singling out from the general flow is relevant useful information facilitating decision-making and achieving goals, through the cognitive (semantic) filter of a specialist evaluating information, an entrepreneur sets the boundaries of opportunities for implementing his entrepreneurial idea.

Today, in addition to the high productivity of machines, electronic knowledge distribution provides the highest flexibility, software configurability of production, the ability to efficiently produce small series and quickly fulfill complex individual orders.

Database

Enterprises accumulate and store information about projects carried out by a given enterprise in computer form; details, blocks, assemblies, components used in projects; about suppliers and warehouses where parts are placed; about employees and departments that are executing projects. In such databases, any information arrays can be recorded, and by analogy, databases can be considered electronic libraries. Such digital libraries provide completely new information opportunities: the ability to select facts and fragments of the text, and not books (magazines) as a whole. There are no "shelves" in the car, so it is possible to directly look inside the book and display on the display screen (monitor) only that part of the book that is interesting to the user.

Expert systems

An important step in the development of information systems is the construction of expert systems. The expert system must ask questions to the user, evaluate the situation and obtain solutions that are presented in some form to the user. In addition, the expert system may be required to demonstrate the way in which the solution was obtained and its justification.

An expert system models the thought process of a human expert who is a specialist in solving a certain type of problem. With the help of expert systems, problems related to the class of formalized, semi-structured problems are solved. An algorithmic solution to such problems either does not exist due to incompleteness, uncertainty, inaccuracy, vagueness of the situations under consideration and knowledge about them, or such solutions are unacceptable in practice due to the complexity of resolving algorithms. The main difference between information retrieval and expert systems lies in the fact that the first searches for the information available in it on a given topic, and the second - logical processing of information in order to obtain new information, which was not explicitly included in it. At the same time, based on the knowledge base of the machine, not only facts are automatically determined, as in database, but new knowledge is generated by inference. Expert systems are capable of difficult situations give qualified advice (advice, hint, orientation). Helping an entrepreneur or professional make an informed decision.

An expert system can be created for a specific user, and then when creating it, the specific requirements of the customer, his taste and inclinations are taken into account. These systems include various automated workstations.

Structural expert systems contain logical inference subsystems, knowledge bases and intelligent interfaces - programs for "communication" with the machine. Knowledge bases are a set of empirical rules for the truth of conclusions (statements) on a given topic (problem); databases of empirical data and descriptions of problems, as well as options for their solutions.

Preparation of decision making in management AIS

Today's businesses require more and more agility. In a period of rapid changes in the market, a shorter circulation cycle of products and services, and volatility in consumer demand, the fundamental nature of the information base for decision-making and monitoring their implementation is important. Traditional paper media serve as a clear barrier to the introduction of advanced management technologies. In this regard, the use modern methods collection, processing. Storing and presenting information for management decisions is one of the most important levers for business development.

The role of management decisions

Management decisions at an enterprise cover all aspects of its activity: preparation for production, production itself, marketing, work with personnel, finance, etc. The main task of management is to coordinate the activities of departments for their most effective use in solving strategic, tactical and current tasks of the enterprise.

From an informational point of view, the core is the decision making system (DSS), although architecturally it is a superstructure over the operational information systems used in the enterprise. The purpose of the development and implementation of DSS is to provide information support for operational capabilities and comfortable conditions for top management and leading specialists to make informed decisions that are consistent with the mission of the enterprise, as well as its strategic and tactical goals. The basis of such a system are:

delivery of statistical data and analytical and summary information from both internal and external sources for economic and financial assessments, comparison of plans, development of models and forecasting in business;
formation and operation in cooperation with the management of the relevant system of information, financial, mathematical and heuristic models of economic and financial processes.

The conceptual solution of the problem posed should be based on providing access to data and information and the formation of an adaptive system of business models. In doing so, it is necessary to ensure:

access to data from internal and external information sources using commercially available databases;
data and information management in heterogeneous (multi-platform) complexes, which makes it possible to ensure their openness (localizability, mobility and interoperability);
storage of data and information in unified formats suitable for further analysis, synthesis and presentation, including "what if" models;
analysis and synthesis of financial and economic information, modeling of states, processes and conditions;
presentation of information in the form of diagrams, graphs of geographical maps in the form of an intuitive and convenient guide for making decisions.

Thus, the purpose of creating the system is to provide methodological and informational support for the preparation of decision-making on key financial and economic issues by top management and middle managers of the enterprise on the basis of operational strategic analysis and forecast of financial and economic indicators. This implies constant forecasting, monitoring, analysis and adjustment of the activities of the enterprise and its divisions, the products and services provided, the customers served, the state of the markets and the conditions of competition in them.

Information support of management activities

One of the main differences between analytical and operational data processing is not so much the large amount of data being processed, but the need to support the processing of arbitrary, not pre-regulated requests from various sources of information.

Preliminary classification of information sources. Information, software and hardware are designed to systematize both internal and external sources of information. Internal sources of information can be:

transactional systems designed for operational work, including with clients, including clients of branches and representative offices;
system of intracompany electronic document management;
documents from electronic storages;
paper documents.

External sources of information include:

news agencies supplying data, both in electronic form and on paper;
legislative and regulatory bodies;
customers and partners of the enterprise submitting data in electronic form and on paper.

When forming information warehouses, one should first conduct a survey of potentially interesting internal and external sources of information, evaluate the potential volume and content of information transferred to the information warehouse, the requirements for structuring information and the possibility of maintaining it.

Delivery of information. Delivery of information from external and internal sources can be carried out through dedicated channels, global electronic networks of commercial or general purpose, corporate and local computer networks. To work with paper documents technologies for the formation of electronic copies within the framework of the electronic archive are being worked out. Methods for analyzing unstructured and weakly structured information are provided, including its search and delivery at the request of the user.

With a distributed architecture of an enterprise and its information resources, it should be possible to obtain information from various territorially disparate sources.

Information management. The initial data entering the system from various sources is usually filtered. In particular, the following transformation steps can be carried out:

correctness check (internal consistency of data, safety of making this entry for the system as a whole);
reformatting (bringing to a common format in accordance with the principle of data and information integration);
filtering and aggregating data;
exclusion of duplicate data;
data dating (mandatory insertion of a data label in accordance with the principle of historicity).

It is advisable to provide for the possibility of describing various data structures (creating and maintaining a metabase) both by the system administrator and the end user, and the data structure visible from the end user's place should be customizable both for a specific type of user and for a specific task being solved.

Data storage. Information storage should be subject to data orientation, historicity, integration and immutability over time. The data in the information warehouse is structured through the use of metadata depending on the level of aggregation.

To save the user's time, multi-level storage of information is provided. This saves both some detailed and aggregated data. Due to the complexity of the multi-level structure of the information warehouse, it is necessary to maintain its integrity, i.e. compliance of the data of the higher levels with the lower ones, as well as the correspondence of detailed data to the data of operational and other external systems.

Information analysis. As you know, it is not enough to collect information and organize its storage, it is important to be able to use it. History teaches that on the basis of the same information, different, and possibly opposite, conclusions can be drawn.

The main potential users of information repositories are middle and top management, system analysts. Often these are extraordinary thinking people, many of whom are quite erudite in the field of computer technology of modern analytical methods. Only a small part of their analytical needs can be pre-formulated, regulated and documented. Therefore, a special place in their work is given to questions of analysis, including mathematical support for the preparation of decision-making.

Modern information systems support the interpretation of information as a set of business objects. This is extremely convenient for non-professional computer users, since such tools allow the analyst, especially the manager, to perceive the data model as a list of familiar and natural objects for him, such as "clients", "contracts", "wages", etc.

At the same time, a more qualified user has the opportunity, having described new functions and views using the built-in query mechanism, to save them for use by colleagues.

It should be especially noted that analysts are interested not only and perhaps not so much in one-dimensional (single-aspect) queries, but in complex queries with several aspects of analysis and multiple relationships. For example, the request may impose restrictions on the time period, the list of products and services being analyzed, regional restrictions, and so on. Despite the fact that such requests can be described in advance, it is not always convenient to do this due to the unpredictability and multiplicity of requests. In addition, the analysis only begins, but in no way ends with the ascertainment and fixation of facts that occurred in the past. The most interesting effect of analytical tools is the forecast for the future and the presence of modeling mechanisms according to the "what will be if" scheme.

It is these possibilities that many software products that have appeared on the market recently.

Representation of information. The presentation of information is one of the most significant factors of the whole concept: as you know, "they are met by their clothes." The top management of the enterprise often sees only this component of information systems. Therefore, the success of the DSS is largely related not only to the content, but also to the possibilities of the visual series for presenting the results of analysis and modeling.

The DSS user interface is subject to increased requirements, including:

organization of the user interface according to a two-level scheme: work in automatic and interactive research modes;
fully Russian-language environment for the end user;
friendly graphical (window) user interface;
the presence of an easily accessible multi-level help and training system for each user window and for each structural element, including on a functional basis;
widespread use of graphical interpretation of initial data and processing results;
the use of a large number of different types of two-dimensional and three-dimensional graphic-analytical objects and specialized analytical graphics, as well as geographic information systems;
providing the user with the ability to customize screen forms and graphical interface elements;
application integration operating systems at the user interface level;
application in programs of a protective system against unauthorized and incorrect user actions;
increased security measures, mandatory use of regulated access and password systems;
portability of user interface objects.

Of particular importance is the easy accessibility of the system of assistance and training in the possibilities and sequence of working with DSS, including the potential use of hypertext for these opportunities. The next factor influencing the understanding of the situation by the decision maker is the flexible and customizable use of the interface.

Conclusion

Based on all of the above, we can draw the following conclusion: the problem posed, that is, providing the decision-making process with information that meets all the requirements, is completely solvable. Currently, this problem is being solved by using modern electronic computers, creating various databases, expert systems and decision-making preparation systems. The principles of creation, functions and principles of operation of these systems are described in the work. Such methods make it quite simple, and most importantly, quickly collect, process and analyze existing information. They also make it possible to significantly facilitate the decision-making process for managers at all levels. The implementation of the systems described above requires sufficient big investments but they certainly pay off. After all, as they say, who owns the information, he owns the situation, who owns the situation, he owns everything.

Along with all the advantages, this solution to the problem has its drawbacks. One of these disadvantages is the need for managers to gain new knowledge in order to use the proposed tools most effectively, which is quite time consuming. On the other hand, the full automation of the decision-making process gives rise to many social problems, in particular, it leads to a reduction in the time spent communicating with other people. And this, from the point of view of psychology, has a bad effect on the psychological state of a person and reduces his desire to work in such a mode, and, consequently, to a decrease in work efficiency. But this is another problem, the solution of which is not the task of this work.

List of used literature:

1. Gerchikova I.N. Management. Textbook - M .: Contact, - 1994
2. Informatization of management systems and decision-making in business: social and methodological aspects. M.: 1994
3. Litvak B.G. Management decisions
4. Karminsky A.M., Nesterov P.V. Business informatization. - M.: Finance and statistics, 1997
5. Oikhman E.G., Popov E.V. Business reengineering: organization reengineering and information technology. - M.: Finance and statistics, 1997

Information- this is information about persons, objects, facts, events, phenomena and processes, that is, everything that can give a broader idea of the object of study.

aim management accounting is to provide managers with the information necessary to make optimal management decisions. Therefore, management information prepared for management use has different requirements than information intended for external users. For the purposes of management accounting, both accounting information is used, which is subject to clear documentation and registration, and any other information necessary for managers to make decisions. The latter can be obtained both from internal sources of the organization and from external sources (such as the press, opinion polls, etc.). At the same time, all information, regardless of the source of receipt, can be both quantitative (i.e., have a numerical expression) and qualitative (i.e., be presented in the form of opinions, judgments, expert assessments).

Quantitative information is divided into accounting and non-accounting. TO accounting sources of information relate:

accounting and reporting;
statistical accounting and reporting;
operational accounting and reporting;
selective credentials.

TO unaccounted sources information includes the following:

results of intra-departmental and non-departmental audit, external and internal audit;
results of inspections of the tax service;
materials of permanent production meetings;
minutes of meetings of labor collectives;
press materials and other media;
explanatory and memos, correspondence with higher, financial and credit organizations;
materials obtained as a result of personal contacts with performers.

It is also necessary for management accounting normative material(contained in production passports, price tags, price lists, reference books, etc.) and Technical information(passports of machines and equipment, drawings, specifications, etc.).

To make operational management decisions, complete or incomplete information about the object of study can be used. Incomplete information, which is subjected to rapid processing, in some cases is sufficient for making operational management decisions, but this may affect the quality of these decisions.

Sources of management accounting information are determined by the purposes of applying such information. Different data are needed for different purposes, but the main data are:

production costs;
cost of products (works, services);
output and result of sales of products (works, services);
profitability data.

It is necessary to determine the sources of obtaining these data, taking into account compliance with all requirements for management information.

Main characteristics of management information:

brevity: information should be clear, contain nothing superfluous and not focus the attention of its consumer on irrelevant or irrelevant information;
accuracy: the user must be sure that the information does not contain errors or omissions, as well as deliberate distortion;
efficiency: information should be provided in a timely manner that makes it possible to quickly orientate and make an effective management decision in time. Otherwise, it is of little use for management purposes;
comparability: information obtained at different times and for different departments/divisions should be comparable;
expediency: The information must be relevant to the purpose for which it is prepared. Information should help in solving specific management problems;
profitability: the preparation of information should not cost more than the benefits of using it. The cost of preparing internal company information should not exceed economic effect from its use;
objectivity: information should be unbiased and impartial, giving an objective assessment of the situation;
targeting: information must meet the requirements of a particular user and correspond to the level of his preparedness and position in the company's hierarchy;
analyticity: information used for internal management purposes should contain data from the current express analysis or suggest the possibility of subsequent analysis at the lowest cost;
utility: information should draw the attention of managers to areas of potential risk and objectively evaluate the work of enterprise managers;
confidentiality: as a rule, management information is confidential and requires protection.

Financial resources and sources of their formation.

Financial resources of an entrepreneurial firm- this is a set of own cash income and receipts from outside, at the disposal of the company and intended to fulfill its financial obligations, financing running costs and costs associated with expanding production.

Borrowed funds:

bank loans;
borrowed funds of other enterprises and organizations;
funds from the issuance and sale of the firm's bonds;
funds from extrabudgetary funds;
budget allocations on a returnable basis, etc.

Functions working capital companies.

Working capital is the capital invested by the company in current operations for the period of each operating cycle. Unlike fixed capital, which repeatedly participates in the production process, circulating capital functions in only one production cycle and fully transfers its value to the entire manufactured product.

Working capital can be in the sphere of production (stocks, work in progress, deferred expenses) and the sphere of circulation (finished products in warehouses and shipped to customers, funds in settlements, short-term financial investments, cash on hand and in bank accounts, goods, etc. .). Working capital can function in monetary and material form.

According to the sources of formation, working capital is divided into own and borrowed (attracted).

Own working capital enterprises provides them financial stability and operational independence.

Borrowed capital, attracted in the form of bank loans and other forms, covers the additional need of the enterprise for funds.

Working capital management is enough difficult task However, this is where the reserves for a significant increase in the financial well-being of the enterprise are laid. To ensure sustainable development, it is necessary to increase working capital at a faster rate than the increase in fixed assets.

Own working capital- this is the part of the funds that is the source of coverage of working capital (current assets) of the enterprise. Conditionally normative value the share of own working capital in the assets of the enterprise is considered to be at least 30%, in inventory- not less than 50%.

Net working capital are defined as the difference between the amount of working capital (current assets) and current liabilities (current liabilities). Ceteris paribus, the growth of this indicator is considered as a positive trend and vice versa.

It is important to achieve the optimal size of working capital. A low value of working capital entails an unstable financial situation, interruptions in the production process and, as a result, a decrease in profits. Overstating the amount of working capital causes an unjustified freezing of assets.

The optimal value of working capital can be numerically determined through the ratio of current assets and current liabilities. This indicator is called the "coverage ratio". It shows how current assets cover current liabilities, or how many rubles of current assets account for 1 ruble of current liabilities. If the coverage ratio is less than 1, current assets do not cover current liabilities.

According to statistics, about one third current assets in the industry falls to the share of stocks. Two-thirds of the funds are mainly in the calculations, namely in receivables. The share of short-term financial investments and cash accounts for only 4-5%. This is explained by cash have absolute liquidity and quick turnover, in contrast to such a type of current assets as receivables.

A person can be called a manager when he makes organizational decisions and implements them through other people, taking into account their own goals and interests. Decision making, as well as information exchange, is the main component of any management activity.

The decision is the choice of the most acceptable alternative from the possible variety of options.

An organizational decision is a choice that a leader makes in order to fulfill his or her duties as defined by his or her position. The purpose of the organizational decision is to provide sequential movement organizations to their intended goals.

Organizational decisions are programmed and non-programmed. Programmed decisions are those that accompany the receipt of the result, and are determined by some already worked out sequence of steps, decisions or actions. Unprogrammed decisions are those that arise as a result of a new unusual situation.

Compromise is an agreement reached through acceptable mutual concessions.

Intuitive decision - a choice made only on the basis of sensation, insight.

Judgmental decisions are choices based on knowledge or experience.

There are several types of solutions typical for the field of management:

In the planning process, the following decisions are made: a decision on the most important task and the nature of the business; about goals; about interaction with the external environment; about the strategy and tactics that are chosen by the organization to achieve its goals.
In the process of organizing the activities of the company, the following decisions are made: on structuring the work of the organization; on the coordination of the functioning of various blocks; on the distribution of powers between the heads of departments; about the structure of the organization when the external environment changes.
In the process of staff motivation, the following decisions are made: on the needs of subordinates; about meeting their needs; performance of subordinates and their job satisfaction.
In the process of control, the following decisions are made: on measuring the results of work; on the evaluation of these results; how the goals of the organization have been achieved; about adjusting goals.

A rational decision is a decision that is based on an analytical process and is often independent of prior experience.

Problem Solving Steps

Diagnosing a complex problem is understanding and establishing the causes of difficulties and the available opportunities to overcome them. Signs of problems in the organization include: low profits; relatively small sales of products; low labor productivity and product quality; excessive costs in the production process, various conflicts in the organization and high turnover of staff. The identification of these symptoms allows you to determine common problems in this organization. For a more detailed analysis of existing problems, it is necessary to collect preliminary information regarding the state of the external and internal environment of the organization.

The reasons for the difficulties most often depend on the specific situation and specific managers: perhaps this is an insufficient number of employees necessary qualifications; the lack of progressive technology, both for managing various processes related to the functioning of the organization, and directly production process; intense competition; sometimes even existing laws and regulations in this country.

The formulation of a set of alternatives or alternative solutions is of fundamental importance. Very often, ill-conceived immediate actions lead to an aggravation of this problem. It is desirable to identify the maximum possible actions that would help solve this problem, and then rank the possible actions in terms of their effectiveness and feasibility. Consider the process of analyzing alternatives:

a) if the problem has been correctly identified, the alternatives have been carefully weighed, and they have been given a reasonable assessment, it is relatively easy to make a decision.

b) if the problem turned out to be very complex, and the possible alternatives do not correspond to the optimal (desired) result, in this case, the existing experience in this field of activity plays a significant role.

A decision will be best if it is agreed with those directly affected or those who helped prepare the decision. In this regard, for successful implementation of any significant decision, it is advisable to involve the largest number of employees of the organization in its development.

Once a decision has been made and it has begun to be implemented, feedback must be established. A control system is necessary to ensure that a given process or activity is carried out optimally. Feedback allows the manager to partially correct decision and contribute to its better implementation.

Evaluation of the results of the implementation of decisions allows you to take into account the existing experience of miscalculations and shortcomings in subsequent work.

There are other factors that influence decision making.

The manager's personal assessments of the importance of this problem often contain subjective judgments. Each person has his own evaluation system, which determines his actions and influences the decision. The approach to making managerial decisions is most often based on a certain system of values. In this regard, the leader, who puts the maximization of labor productivity by any means at the head of his activity, often forgets about the problems of organizing the optimal, efficient process work of employees. This can be expressed in the absence of proper working conditions, opportunities for recreation, good design of work premises.

Decision-making is influenced by behavioral restrictions, that is, factors that impede interpersonal and intraorganizational communications. For example, managers often perceive the existence and severity of a problem differently. They may perceive limitations and alternatives differently. Often this leads to the emergence of various conflicts between them in the process of making and implementing decisions.

In an organization, all decisions tend to be interconnected. Often an important decision builds on previous multiple decisions, and in turn creates alternatives for later decisions to be made. This ability to see the relationship of decisions is one of the main criteria for the selection and appointment of senior managers. Managers with this ability are often candidates for promotion.

Methods of analysis and problem solving

Models and methods of decision making

The ability to make decisions is necessary for the implementation of managerial functions, so the decision-making process is the basis of management theory. As a science, this direction originated in England during the Second World War, when a group of scientists got back to solving a complex military problem - the optimal placement of various units civil defense and firing positions of his army. In the 50s, this theory was modernized, and began to be applied to solve the problems of civilian industry.

Its distinctive features are:

The use of the scientific method, that is, observation, formulation of a hypothesis, confirmation of the validity of a hypothesis.
system orientation.
Using different models.

The simulation process is often used to solve complex control problems, as it avoids significant difficulties and costs when conducting experiments in real life. The basis of modeling is the need for a relative simplification of a real life situation or event, however, this simplification should not violate the basic laws of the functioning of the system under study.

Types of models: physical, analog (organizational chart, graph), mathematical (use of symbols to describe an action or objects).

The process of building models consists of several stages: problem statement; model building; checking the model for the reliability of the description of a given process, object or phenomenon; application of the model; updating the model in the process of research or implementation.

The effectiveness of the model can be reduced due to a number of potential errors, which include unreliable initial assumptions, information limitations, misunderstanding of the model by the users themselves, excessive cost of creating the model, etc.

Game theory is often used in modeling. It was originally developed by the military to take into account the possible actions of the enemy. In business, it is used in modeling the behavior of a competitor, especially often in connection with the problems of changing pricing policy.

Queue theory model (optimal service model). This model is used to determine the optimal number of service channels in relation to the needs for these channels.

inventory management model. This model is often used to optimize the lead time of orders, as well as to determine the necessary resources and space for storing a particular product. The purpose of this model is to minimize the negative consequences of the accumulation or shortage of certain stocks of products or resources.

Linear programming model. This model is used to determine the optimal allocation of scarce resources in the presence of competing needs.

Simulation modeling. Often used in situations that are too complex to use mathematical methods (a marketer can create a model for modifying customer needs due to changes in product prices on the market and their design).

Economic analysis is a form of modeling. An example is the economic analysis of the efficiency of a firm.

Quantitative forecasting methods.

They can be used for forecasting when the activity of the company in the past had certain trends that can and should be continued in the future, and there is not enough information to identify trends in the forecast period under consideration.

One of the methods of such forecasting is the analysis of time series. It is based on the assumption that the patterns of the past can predict the future. This method reveals the tendencies of the past and projects them into the future.

The cause-and-effect method is applied in situations where there are several unknowns. This is a study of the statistical relationship between the factor in question and other variables.

Other qualitative forecasting methods.

Jury opinion. Its essence is to combine and average the opinions of experts in a given field.

A method of researching information from marketers, that is, when sales agents, based on their experience, predict demand in a specific target market.

Expectation model. It is based on a survey of consumers and a generalization of their opinions.

Delphi method. Its essence lies in the fact that experts fill out special questionnaires on the problem under consideration. Each of them individually forms its own forecast. Then these forecasts are transmitted to all experts taking part in the discussion. They get acquainted with the opinion of colleagues. and possibly adjust their previous forecast based on new ideas or information. This procedure is repeated three or four times until eventually all the experts come to a consensus.

How to hold meetings

A few meeting rules:

The facilitator asks each participant about the issues discussed;
- the problem is entered into the general list and numbered;
- the list is posted in a conspicuous place;
- everyone speaks freely and freely;
- if the process is inactive, it is better to transfer it to another day.

Circular system of the meeting:

Subgroups of three to four people are allocated;
- each writes down two or three ideas on a card;
- there is an exchange of cards;
- each complements and develops the ideas of others;
- after three or four exchanges, each subgroup draws up its own summary list of ideas;
- everyone reports on the work in subgroups.

Prioritization:

Each is given five votes;
- he can give all the votes for one idea or one for each, or in any other way at his discretion;
- ideas are read out under their numbers;
- members of the group vote by show of hands;
- the number of fingers shown on the hand indicates the number of votes;
- votes are counted;
- it is checked whether the total number of votes corresponds to the given number;
- the second round is held - the ideas that received the largest number of votes are considered;
- the process is repeated several times;
- as a result, a common opinion is revealed regarding the idea that received the highest priority.

It is extremely important to make a grouping of the list of ways to solve the problem. This clarifies the whole variety of possible approaches when it comes to ways to solve a particular problem.

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